Friday 13 June 2014

currency update

USDINR Intraday Highlights

USDINR trading range for the day is 59.23-59.56.

Rupee closed slightly stronger tracking gains in shares but investors largely stayed on the
sidelines in the absence of any fresh cues.

India's annual consumer price inflation eased to 8.28 percent in May, helped by slightly
cooling food prices, government data showed.

India's industrial production rebounded more than expected in April to grow 3.4 percent
over year-ago levels

BUY USDINR @ 59.30 SL 59.10 TGT 59.54-59.70

Rupee closed slightly stronger tracking gains in shares but investors largely stayed on the sidelines in the absence of any fresh cues, with the central bank continuing to actively intervene in the market
to prevent any volatility. The Sensex edged higher on Thursday as blue-chips such as HDFC Bank rose on hopes that economic data due later in the day may show easing retail inflation and a pick-up in
industrial activity. India's industrial production rebounded more than expected in April to grow 3.4 percent over year-ago levels, after output had fallen in the previous two months. India's annual
consumer price inflation eased to 8.28 percent in May, helped by slightly cooling food prices, government data showed. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 59.48
while the three-month was at 60.01. India's exports increased at the fastest pace in six months in May, in a boost for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new government as it signalled a loosening of gold
import rules and a push to improve trade ties with the United States. India's exports rose 12.4 percent in May over the previous year - the sharpest rise in 6 months - helped by a weaker rupee,
government data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 407878 while prices down -0.105 rupee, now USDINR is
getting support at 59.31 and below same could see a test of 59.235 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 59.475, a move above could see prices testing 59.565.

EURINR Intraday Highlights

EURINR trading range for the day is 80.06-80.72.

Euro seen under pressure amid pressure from the European Central Bank rate cut at its
policy

Euro area industrial production grew at a faster-than-expected pace in April, staging a
strong rebound from March's slump, data from Eurostat showed

Germany's Federal Statistics Office said number of people out of work rose by 21,000 in
May.
BUY EURINR ABV 80.50 SL 80.34 TGT 80.74-80.98.

Euro seen under pressure amid pressure from the European Central Bank rate cut at its policy. The European Central Bank cut all its main rates to record lows last Thursday and for the first
time imposed negative deposit rates on commercial lenders, in a bid to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone. As a result, the euro has weakened broadly as euro zone bonds rallied
in recent sessions, widening the yield gap between euro zone sovereign bonds and their major counterparts. Euro area industrial production grew at a faster-than-expected pace in April,
staging a strong rebound from March's slump, data from Eurostat showed. Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent from March, when it fell 0.4 percent, which was
revised from a 0.3 percent decline. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent increase for April. Year-on-year, production grew 1.4 percent in April, much ahead of economists' prediction for
0.9 percent gain. March's initial decline of 0.1 percent was revised to a 0.2 percent increase. Wholesale prices in Germany declined at a slower year-over-year rate in May, a report from
Destatis showed. Wholesale prices fell 0.9 percent in May over last year, following a 1.3 percent decline in April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in
open interest by -4.55% to settled at 21943 while prices down -0.255 rupee, now EURINR is getting support at 80.21 and below same could see a test of 80.07 level, And resistance is now
likely to be seen at 80.54, a move above could see prices testing 80.73.

GBPINR Intraday Highlights

GBPINR trading range for the day is 99.7-100.18.
GBP seen supported after data revealed fewer individuals received unemployment
assistance in May than markets were anticipating.
House prices in the United Kingdom were higher in May, the latest survey from the Royal
Institution of Chartered Surveyors revealed
Official data showed that the U.K. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the three months to
April, the lowest since early 2009.

BUY GBPINR ABV 100.10 SL 99.80 TGT 100.45-100.75.

GBP seen supported after data revealed fewer individuals received unemployment assistance in May than markets were anticipating. House prices in the United Kingdom were higher in May,
the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors revealed with an index score of 57 percent. That's up from 55 percent in April, and it topped forecasts for 52 percent. The
U.K. unemployment decreased to the lowest level in more than five years as companies raised their headcount as economic recovery gained momentum. The ILO unemployment rate eased
to 6.6 percent in the three months to April from 7.2 percent during the November to January period, the Office for National Statistics said. The rate also dropped from the 7.8 percent during
the same period of last year. The latest figure was the lowest since early 2009 and came in below the expected 6.7 percent. BOE has pledged not to raise its key rate from the current 0.50
percent until the slack in the labor market is exhausted. A faster-than-anticipated decline in the unemployment rate earlier this year prompted the BoE to update its forward guidance, under
which it originally said interest rates would remain on hold until the jobless rate fell below 7%. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by
1.92% to settled at 24912 while prices up 0.0925 rupee, now GBPINR is getting support at 99.7175 and below same could see a test of 99.6575 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 99.96, a move above could see prices testing 100.1425.

JPYINR Intraday Highlights

JPYINR trading range for the day is 58.02-58.41.

JPY dropped ahead of Bank of Japan meet outcome amid fears of continued easing even
after meeting target of 2% inflation.
Core machine orders in Japan tumbled a seasonally adjusted 9.1 percent on month in April,
the Cabinet Office said - worth 851.3 billion yen.
An index measuring prices for domestic corporate goods was up 0.3 percent on month in
May, the Bank of Japan said.

BUY JPYINR ABV 58.28 SL 58.10 TGT 58.48-58.75.

JPY seen under pressure ahead of Bank of Japan meet outcome Friday amid fears of continued easing even after meeting the target of 2% inflation. Core machine orders in Japan tumbled a seasonally
adjusted 9.1 percent on month in April, the Cabinet Office said - worth 851.3 billion yen. The headline figure beat forecasts for a decline of 10.8 percent following the 19.1 percent surge in March. On a
yearly basis, core machine orders spiked 17.6 percent - also topping expectations for an increase of 13.3 percent following the 16.1 percent surge in the previous month. Government orders surged 40.5
percent on month and 18.5 percent on year to 297.1 billion yen. Orders from overseas added 71.3 percent on month and 101.7 percent on year to 1,614.8 billion yen. Orders from agencies jumped 27.3
percent on month and 24.4 percent on year to 98.7 billion yen. An index measuring prices for domestic corporate goods was up 0.3 percent on month in May, the Bank of Japan said - coming in at
106.1. The headline figure beat forecasts for an increase of 0.1 percent following the 2.8 percent gain in April. On a yearly basis, prices climbed 4.4 percent - also beating expectations for 4.1 percent,
which would have been unchanged. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.66% to settled at 4317 while prices down -0.185 rupee, now
JPYINR is getting support at 58.0675 and below same could see a test of 58.0075 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 58.26, a move above could see prices testing 58.3925.


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