Deri roll april to may 2016

rolls at 74% (last month 62%),higher than 6-month average of 69%, however in value terms, it is at 165 Cr. versus 158 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 2% in last series, number of shares also increased at 209 lakh versus 204 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide increased at 83% (last month 79%) in value terms 54925 Cr which is lower than last month 50827 Cr., (in share terms it gains, along with price action as some individual stocks have moved up 5% on price chart) leading to overall position high 71495 Cr Vs 66712 Cr. (increase M-o-M) in futures positions Roll Cost is at 0.49 which is higher Month on Month of 0.30, better  than 3mth avg. of 0.30, with NIFTY cost also at 0.61 (better last month 0.54, also better  0.44 avg. of 3 months). Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. Has spurted up  at 0.30 (last month 0.29), implies market participants continue to decreased bet on individual stocks.

Nifty front PCR_OI opened below 1 at 0.92 (higher last month 0.77 last  4mth Avg. 0.84) with 8000 and 8200 CE having highest OI across CE options as 26 and 32 lakh Shares (7.5 and 7.6 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying CE writers are convinced NIFTY will find resistance around 8080-8250; on support side PE OI is at 7700 and 7800 PE 38 and 31 lakh shares, (Thursday add 15 and 7 lakh Shares), implying 7700 will be crucial support zone; Index options positions have  increased to 81803 Cr (last month 80640 Cr) however if we take premium in consideration, Options increase in line with market participants clearly placing bets on VIX to be moving up  as it is reached crucial support 15.5, if moves back above  17.5-18.1, BEARS will find upper hand and BULLS will find difficult to manage on to support at base levels NIFTY 7750-7800, We feel Nifty trading range for first few days of this series would be 7750-8130 as we enter the May Series.

Among stock futures positions have decreased in Mid Cap Stocks implying traders continue cut down positions  in MAR; making stock specific activity crucial; sectors that can outperform Index in the MAY Series AUTO, FIN. (except HSG. FIN.), PVT. BANKS, TEXTIES C-o-C improve; On other hand Flat Rolls seen CAP. GOODS,PSU BANKING, PHARMA, FMCG, OIL & GAS (RIL and OMC). and IT suggesting more Long Unwind or Fresh Shorts; need to look at new positions being added.



TOP PICKS



·         EICHERMTR rolls higher than avg. at 84% with Cost improving than 3mth avg. technically, the stock has closed above stiff resistance 19800, one should buy on dips till holds above 19700, any correction should be used to enter, till holds above 19800, will ensure target of 20600-20800.
·         AXISBK showing rolls above avg. at 81% versus 78% with C-o-C flat improve long rolled, Stock has formed a strong bottom at 453-455, if moves above 471 expect upside 485-498.
·         UPL rolls above avg. at 94% (M-o-M rolls flat with cost improve) implies supportive buying at lower level, with stock closing above 499-500 levels, till holds above 497 can test TGT. of 526-531
·         PFC. has seen above avg. rolls at 78% (above six month avg., with cost improve), implying long roll, stock has break out above at 174-175 i.e. coinciding with weekly resistance, if it stays above 174 can test higher levels  194-201 buy on dips.
·         DABUR: saw rolls of 90% (higher than six month avg.) with cost improve, implying long rolled technically stock has moved above stiff resistance 265-266 one should trade with positive bias till trades above 263 expect to retest further resistance levels of 275-279 levels.
·         NCC. showing well above avg. rolls of 87% with C-o-C flat to positive, implying long positions rolled , with stock rebounding from a strong support at  73-74 i, one should buy on dips, if stock sustains above 74-75, expect to test 85-86 recent high next resistance levels.
·         JSWSTEEL: saw above avg. rolls at 89% (increase M-o-M), with cost improve supportive buying at lower levels , with stock break out above stiff resistance at 1320-1325 levels buy on dips if trades above 1315 expect to test next resistance level of 1392-1400 levels.
·         GRANUELS rolls at 89% improve M-o-M (6-month avg.) with C-o-C increase imply long addition, technically, the stock has crossed stiff resistance 124-125 zone in weekly charts, till it remain above resistance 130, one should buy on dips for a target of 139-142.
·         Large Cap TECHM also saw above avg. rollover of 83% with Cost improve; supportive buying, stock has rebounded crucial support zone levels of 469-470 i.e. weekly support, if it remains above 475 levels and moves above 483 expect to test 509-510 levels

WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!

Today’s Headlines – 27th April 2016

 Today’s Headlines – 27th April 2016



Market and Economy

·         Mutual fund folios see a record 14% increase in fiscal 2016
·         Equity Funds Continue To Draw Retail Investors: CRISIL
·         Don’t expect next Fed rate hike until 2018: Michael Sneyd, BNP Paribas
·         FSSAI expansion plans shelved by government
·         Markets nearly erase 2016 losses to end at a four-month high
·         BSE launches gold hedge indices to protect equity investors
·         Centre to divest 11.36% stake in NHPC
·         Forest clearances for only 6% of road projects since Jan 2015
·         DBS Bank offers 7% interest rate
·         Either ways, India to benefit from global central


Mutual fund folios see a record 14% increase in fiscal 2016

Mutual funds folios in India rose by a record 14% in the year ended 31 March, indicating growing interest of retail investors in equity-oriented funds.

Mutual funds in India added more than 5.9 million folios to reach a total of 47.7 million in FY16, Crisil Research said on Tuesday, citing data disclosed by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). A folio is a unique number given to an investor by an asset management company for investing in a particular fund.

The industry added 1.81 million folios in the March quarter, an increase of 3.95% from the preceding December quarter.

Read more at:

http://www.livemint.com/Money/VBRowqYA6XWPQo55asrVDJ/Mutual-fund-folios-rise-a-record-14-in-fiscal-year-201516.html



Equity Funds Continue To Draw Retail Investors: CRISIL

Volatility in the Indian stock markets has not deterred retail investors from pouring money in equity-oriented funds, CRISILBSE 0.37 % research said in a report. Retail folios in equity schemes rose 13.1% to 3.49 crore in FY16 and contributed 77% of the total retail folios, despite the market as represented by Nifty 50, closing the fiscal year down nearly 9%.

"The latest quarter saw addition of 12.57 lakh accounts - the highest since December 2014," the report stated. "Retail folios in the segment marked the sixth consecutive quarter of gains."

Among other categories, balanced funds, with higher orientation towards equity, too continued to benefit from the penchant for equity investments. The category added 4.33 lakh folios in FY16 to push the total count to 23.38 lakh.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/51992027.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst



Don’t expect next Fed rate hike until 2018: Michael Sneyd, BNP Paribas


The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates until 2018, said Michael Sneyd, forex strategist at BNP Paribas. He said the Fed may consider a rate hike only if the US economy does exceptionally well, but such a move could upset equations, choking fund flows. Sneyd spoke to Saikat Das and Pratik Bhakta during his recent India visit. Edited excerpts:

What worries the world markets? The biggest focus over the last few weeks has been the Fed and its move to be more dovish.

What signals are you getting from the Federal Reserve? A few weeks ago, Fed chief Janet Yellen said the way the Fed views the world has been unchanged. But the downside risks to the US economy have increased. Most of the downside risks stem from what is happening in foreign economies. It also extends from what is happening in global markets.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52002229.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst



FSSAI expansion plans shelved by government



The plan to expand the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) is proposed to be shelved by the government. In 2014, the government had mooted a draft cabinet note for a Rs 1,750 crore-central scheme for  strengthening of FSSAI, e-governance, food safety surveillance and expansion of states’ capacity.

In contrast, a note written by the chairperson of FSSAI,Ashish Bahuguna on January 6, this year to his staff has suggested that the FSSAI would wind up its regional offices and leave enforcement of  safety laws to state governments. With the Rs 800 crore support to states under the central scheme being shelved, Bahuguna has also recommended that regulations be amended, allowing state  officials to monitor food safety as an additional duty and not necessarily on a full-time basis. He has also recommended that instead of setting up government labs to test food samples, as was previously planned,  FSSAI should depend on private labs.



Read more at:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/fssai-expansion-plans-shelved-by-government-116042601273_1.html



Markets nearly erase 2016 losses to end at a four-month high



Indian indices on Tuesday posted their biggest single-day advance in two weeks, boosted by earnings of Maruti Suzuki. Gains in the European market and recovery in global crude oil prices also helped investor sentiment.

The Sensex added 328 points, or 1.3 per cent, to end at 26,007, the highest close since January 1. The Nifty 50 index rallied 107.6 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 7,962.6, only one point shy of a new 2016 high.



Both indices have rallied 13 per cent each since March 1, helped by recovery in global markets. The indices had plunged over 12 per cent in the first two months of the year, on fears of a China-led global slowdown.  

Foreign investors on Tuesday bought shares worth over Rs 500 crore, provisional data showed.



Read more at:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/markets-nearly-erase-2016-losses-to-end-at-a-four-month-high-116042600877_1.html

BSE launches gold hedge indices to protect equity investors



Asia Index Pvt Ltd, a joint venture between the S&P Dow Jones Indices and the BSE, has launched a new Gold Hedged Index and Dynamic Gold Hedged Index, the first such indices in India. These indices “can serve as the basis of investment products such as ETFs that allow investors to benefit from the returns of the Indian equity market while hedging against a decline in the value of the Indian rupee versus gold,” a press release from the company said.



The two indices are designed to simulate the total returns of the benchmark Sensex with a hedge against the fluctuations of the rupee against gold. The risks involved in investing in equity continue, however.



The Gold Hedge is calculated as a combination of a long Sensex total return position and Gold Mini futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX).



Read more at:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-markets/bse-launches-gold-hedge-indices-to-protect-equity-investors/article8525195.ece

Centre to divest 11.36% stake in NHPC

Putting its disinvestment programme for the 2016-17 fiscal on the fast track, the government announced on Tuesday that it will sell 11.36 per cent stake in NHPC to raise close to ₹ 2,800 crore.

The stake sale will be through the offer for sale mechanism and non-retail investors will be eligible to place bids on April 27 while retail investors will be eligible to bid on April 28.

The floor price for the offer for sale has been set at  21.75 per share and on offer will be 125.76 crore shares. On Tuesday, public sector hydro power producer NHPC’s shares closed 1.32 per cent higher on the BSE at 23.05.

The government currently holds 85.96 per cent stake in NHPC.

By conducting the offer for sale in April, the government will commence the disinvestment programme for the 2016-17 fiscal in the first month of the fiscal itself. For the full fiscal, the government aims to raise 35,000 crore from the minority stake sales in public sector units.

Read more at:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/centre-to-divest-1136-stake-in-nhpc/article8524288.ece?homepage=true



Forest clearances for only 6% of road projects since Jan 2015



The Union environment ministry has given final forest clearance to only 6% of the 598 proposals it received for road and highways projects across India in the 16 months starting January 2015.



Environment minister Prakash Javadekar, however, attributed the delay to state governments who don’t send the required documents. According to environment ministry data, the centre received 598 proposals to build roads and highways from 1st January 2015 to 21 April 2016 from various states for forest clearance.



Of the total 598 proposals, only 37 (6%) got final forest clearance while 164 got in-principle approval. “Decision on 364 (60%) proposals is pending due to non-receipt of essential documents/information sought from the concerned states/Union Territories,” Javadekar told the Lok Sabha on Tuesday.

Read more at:

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/xznuWSDzz1snTEYCMPFdgO/Forest-clearances-for-only-6-of-road-projects-since-Jan-20.html



DBS Bank offers 7% interest rate



The rate is for accounts opened via 'digibank'

Singapore’s largest lender DBS Bank on Tuesday launched ‘digibank’, a mobile only bank, offering 7 per cent interest for accounts opened through it.

The bank is targeting five million savings account customers through this platform in the next few years and help increasing its liability book to Rs 50,000 crore and asset book to Rs 10,000 crore.

Piyush Gupta, chief executive officer, DBS Bank said, “Our goal is to get five million customers through the Digibank in the next 4-5 years. We will offer account-holders 7 per cent interest, one of the highest interest rate in the market on every rupee, allow unlimited free cash withdrawals at over 200,000 ATMs nationwide, there is no minimum balance requirements.”

Unlike other private sector lenders such as Kotak Bank, Yes Bank that offer six per cent on deposits above Rs 1 lakh, DBS would be offering 7 per cent irrespective of the amount in the saving account.



Read more at:

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/banking/dbs-bank-offers-7-interest-rate-055

Either ways, India to benefit from global central banks' moves



Central bank actions and statements are again at centrestage and likely to shape the narrative and the trading trends across the world this week. The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to do anything substantial but Chariperson Yellen's statement will be parsed, with great care for nuances. The optimists believe that the statement will be generally upbeat. The pessimists believe the statement will be downbeat.

There are differences of opinion as to what would be upbeat or downbeat. The primary consideration for most traders is liquidity. The biggest fear for most traders is that the Fed will hike interest rates soon and that will reduce the cash available for speculation.



Nobody expects the Fed to hike immediately but it's possible that the Fed might hike in June and almost certain that it will hike inside calendar 2016. The Fed would only hike in a hurry if it saw strong the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the US and a tightening labour market, which could create the preconditions for inflation.



Read more at:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/either-ways-india-to-benefit-from-global-central-banks-moves-116042601173_1.html



WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!

IPO Note - Thyrocare Technologies Limited (TTL) (Long term Investors – Subscribe

Errata:  IPO Note - Thyrocare Technologies Limited (TTL) - (Long term Investors – Subscribe)





Please note that the IPO report published yesterday (Thyrocare Technologies Ltd IPO Note) had erroneously assigned a P/E of 20x (within the outlook and valuations section of the report) to Thyrocare Technologies Lt (TTL), whereas the value was derived using a P/E multiple of 30x. Also note that the P/E multiple of 30x represents a nearly 37% discount to the only listed peer available (i.e. Dr Lal Path Labs). Rest of the investment arguments remain unchanged.



Apologies for the error.

IPO Note - Thyrocare Technologies Limited (TTL)  (Long term Investors – Subscribe)



Key Highlights

·         Portfolio of wide range of specialized tests and profiles of tests: TTL provides a wide range of diagnostic tests which include 198 tests and 59 profiles of tests. These tests cover the fast growing segment of wellness and preventive healthcare. According to CRISIL Research, this segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% over next three years.
·         Preventive medical tests catching up fast in the country: The profiles of tests include 16 profiles of tests administered under the “Aarogyam” brand, which offers patients a suite of wellness and preventive health care tests.
·         Multi-lab Model driving volume: TTL operates through one central lab and 5 regional processing labs which enabled it to boost the tests volume to over 38% CAGR over the past three years. Given the business model of the company, it is expected to maintain the growth trajectory in the medium to long term.
·         Pan-India, widely spread collection network: TTL has built a nation-wide network of collection centers using 1041 franchises in 466 cities and spread across 24 states and one union territory which has helped the company to penetrate deep in the Indian diagnostic services market.
·         Strong operating performance and asset light model leading to high returns: The franchise model of the company has helped it to minimize its capital expenditure leading to higher returns on equity as well as return on capital employed. TTL’s sales and EBITDA have grown by a CGAR of ~24% and ~22% respectively over the past 5 years.
Outlook and Valuations

Thyrocare Technologies Ltd. was among the first Indian diagnostic laboratories to obtain internationally renowned quality accreditations like ISO 9001-2000 rating as early as 2001, having over 1000 franchises spread in 466 cities across 24 states and one union territory in India. TTL’s sales have grown at a CAGR of ~24% to over the past five years.

Given a) strong management background, b) established brand and c) strong growth statistics, we value TTL at `486 per share (i.e. ~20x its FY18E profits based on our estimated sales growth of 24% CAGR between FY16 – FY18, and normalized net profit margins of 25%) and recommend “Subscribe” on TTL IPO for both long term and near term investors as it is one of its kind companies in this space, with this kind of a business model.



Key Risks



TTL operates in industry which is highly competitive and fragmented: Due to low entry barrier, the diagnostic industry in India is

highly competitive as the company has to compete with organized as well as unorganized players. At the same time, company also

faces competition from their franchises as they may decide to start their own laboratories.

 Negative Publicity of Brand may harm the business and also the survival: Brand is among the most valuable asset to the

company. Any negative publicity may harm the Brand of the company which it turns may affect the operations and business of the

company adversely. This may also challenge the survival of the company. At the same time company may not be able to control all

the factors as some are beyond its control.

 Delay in transportation or logistics could disrupt the Hub n Spoke model of the company: Since the company operates through

one central processing lab and five regional processing labs, timely delivery and logistical efficiency is critical is maintaining its quality

and promptness of service (the entire hub and spoke model is dependent on the efficiency of the logistics). Any disruption in that

poses business risk to the company.

 High dependency on the franchises: Company operates in franchise based revenue model. It becomes important for the company

to attract new franchises and retain the existing ones to maintain and grow the test volumes. At the same time it has to ensure the

efficiency with which the franchises work (as to how they collect samples).





IPO details

The Company plans to raise around `4.79bn through the issue.

 An offer for sale of shares worth `4.79 bn (at the upper end of the price band).

 The issue will constitute up to 20% of post issue equity.

 At the higher end of the price band, the market-cap will stand at ~24.00bn.


WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!