Wednesday 22 March 2017

D-mart cheers...!!!

D-mart cheers...!!! 🍻 

Some people who were comparing  D-Mart IPO with R-power IPO are mostly likely to have acquired powers to get invisible for today. 

😂 Jokes apart...!!!

A fantastic listing for Avenues super market ( D- mart) ...!!!   

Everyone who applied for the IPO and got allotment is feeling as lucky as having won a lottery. I am happy that retailers made money. 

What's mind-blowing is that even after majority of investors who cashed out seeing a listing at 100%+ PREMIUM. The stock price still closed 641...,  which means the institution and strong hands interest in the stock absorbed all the selling and still there was demand for the stock. There have been massive amount of deals from open market today. 

Just to understand it from valuations context the 18000 cr issue which was being offered at the IPO price of 300/ per share was 40 times of FY-18 earnings. That means at close today it trades at more than 40, 000 cr valuations and PE of approx 85 times. Whopping...!!! 

So what's the hype all about ??  why there's a goldrush to lap up the stock even at such high valuations?  

Let's Try & Understand 

> D-MART started its business only in the year 2000.... In just 16 years of existence it's doing a revenue of approx 12000 cr with PAT of 450 cr ( Fy-17) 

> Its now in the TOP 3 largest retail branded outlets in India. 

> Amazing business model :- 
> Majority of the properties where Dmart runs it's company owned 

> Since it saves on RENTALS,  it offers 6-7% discount on its groceries and food items. This is the reason why people prefer going to D-mart instead of any other retailers. 

> That means it saves a massive overhead of RENTALS on the store. 

> The other retailers like reliance,  future group etc,  have their outlets at malls at prime locations which involves higher rentals and common maintainence cost. 

> D-mart  refrains from opening stores in malls instead prefers areas which are on outskirts or away from society so that overall cost is low. 

> They don't over spend on interiors to make a jazzy look. 

> Property appreciation creates value over longer term 

> Last 4 years company revenues has grown at 40% CAGR & profits by 52% annually.  The return on Equity  & return on capital employed have been 24% each. Debt to Equity stands at healthy 0.7%. 

> Its Sales per store is highest and stands at approximately 45-50 cr ( Reliance is 5-7 cr) 

> The D- mart stores have lowest inventory turnaround time which means it's sells very fast and that adds on to operational efficiency and cost benefit. 

> D- mart pays off its suppliers within 2 days and takes a cash discount for fast payments. Which allows it an overall additional 2-3% margins at operating levels. 

> Other retailers generally have 30-60 credit period from their suppliers. 

> D- mart saves by keeping advertising budget very low. 

> Understanding the mindset of Indian consumers. 


🤔  Imagine with massive store expansion and goodwill behind the brand in years to come what if D-mart decides to introduce it's own products and rolls it out at the eye line levels on its own chain of stores???  Sugar Salt???  

Just a food for thought... 

All & All in the world where the world is giving crazy valuations to loss making online ( in the air) business models.  Its heartening to see valuations premium for something which has more substance to it.

 WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
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Monday 20 March 2017

KHUD KA DHANDHA KARO YAA FIR DUSRE KE DHANDHE ME INVEST KARO :)


WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
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*STOCK MARKET TIPS*

*STOCK MARKET TIPS*

*1.Avoid buying stocks that everyone is buying.*

Normally, People tend to buy stocks that their friends, neighbors or colleagues are buying. Don’t buy stocks that everyone is buying. This strategy will get you no where in the long term when it backfires.

*2. Have realistic expectations from your investment*

Past Performance is Not Necessarily an Indicative of Future Results. If a stock has given great results in the past then it doesn’t mean that you will continue to get the same results year on year. Have realistic expectations from your stock investments.

*3. Follow a disciplined approach to investing*

Be in the market for medium to long term. If you are looking to get rich quick, the stock market is not for you. A vast majority of investors lose money in the short term. Have patience and you will get outstanding results.

*4. Don’t try to time the lows and highs of the market*

Getting a good stock at a high valuation is much better than getting a poor stock at a cheap valuation. Don’t try to catch the top of bottoms of the market or the stock. A lot of people have lost far more money than people who have made.

*5. Don’t let emotions take over your judgement*

This is one  of the best share market tips. Fear and greed are two things which will stop you from making money. Stay away from both of them. Don’t invest in fancy stocks if you hear that people have made great returns on them. The moment the market reverses, you will be caught by fear and eventually end up selling the stock and losing money.

*6. Invest the money that you can afford to lose*

Don’t borrow money to invest in the share market. Invest what you have as surplus. Remember you are investing in high risk instruments when you invest in stocks.

*7. Monitor your investments regularly*

We live in a connected world. One important event happening in any part of the world has an impact on our financial markets. Monitor your portfolio and continue to add/remove stocks as per market conditions. If you can’t monitor your portfolio due to insufficient time or knowledge, then seek help of a financial advisor in your city.

*8. The single most important piece of advice during a stock market crash: don’t sell*

Most people generally do not monitor their portfolio everyday but when the market crashes dramatically, and they hear about it in the news, they panic. These days are very important to the media, and lead to a lot of media coverage about the market’s decline. People develop negative emotions about the markets and start checking their portfolio to see how much money they’ve lost. Negative sentiments leads us to sell or at least to stop buying. Don’t do it. Selling stocks during a crash is a bad idea.

 WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
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Be ready.... UPCOMING IPO's in 2017:


WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
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I think it's better to share one of the messages

I think it's better to share one of the messages 

Seeing lots of posts regarding success stories of Infoys, Wipro, Eicher Motors circulating these days. So, I think this is a must read post for everyone today. Does Long Term Really Pay You Off?

Stock Markets are fascinating. Indian Stock Markets can compete with the rest of world for the success stories, scandals, intrigue and the tales of disasters.

It is said that Stock Markets are the barometer of a nation’s economic progress. It is often debated but the majority argument favors this statement.

Stock market has given returns which are higher then any other asset class.

Then there are the great stories of Infosys, Wipro, Eicher Motors giving unimaginable returns on investment.

But there are two sides of every coin.

The Story Nobody Likes To Tell

In the NIFTY index, there are 50 stocks ( NIFTY actually means NSE FIFTY ).

( Oddly, though at present there are 51 )

These stocks are based mainly on market capitalization. When a constituent loses value significantly, it is removed from index and replaced by another stock. No one talks of these stocks which got removed.

They were the stars of the day at some point of time and are duds today. Those were the investment ideas of that time and relegated to horror stories now. I will talk about this aspect which no one talks about.

The Wealth Destroyers:

These stocks may be not in favor presently, but were the flavor of the month at their prime. They were part of the NIFTY index or otherwise very highly regarded and traded. Today they are shunned and forgotten, but there are real people holding these stocks wondering how they will ever recover their money. NIFTY going up does not have a meaning for them.

Reliance Communication:

On Jan 08, 2008 , the stock traded at a lifetime high of Rs. 844.70

The lifetime low was around Rs. 30 few days back

2. Suzlon Energy:

The huge fall in this stock made me look for other similar stories.

It was added to NIFTY in 2006. In 2008, it traded above Rs. 2000 and then there was a stock split. The comparison is made taking into account the effect of splitting.

The lifetime High- Jan 09, 2008 — Rs. 412.88

The lifetime Low— August 28, 2013— Rs. 5.70

And the funny part is:

You will get to hear on business channels that Suzlon Energy has gained 158% in last three years.

3. Unitech:

It was a NIFTY stock in 2008. It was valued highly and was at a high of Rs. 546.80 on January 2, 2008.

What is the current price?

Rs. 5.90

It is around 1% of the high price.

Can the investor ever expect to make good their losses?

4. DLF:

From a high of Rs. 1225 in January 2008 , it trades for around Rs. 147 today.  Appears better than the others listed above, but 90% loss is not something to be taken lightly.

Even if it goes up by 100%, it will be nowhere near 1225.

5. Himachal Futuristics:

In December 2000, one of my friend bought for Rs. 1560 on one day and sold for Rs. 1605 next day. A day later it was Rs. 1675. He blamed himself for not taking profit.

Few months later was shocked when he saw a price of Rs. 90 in April 2001.

Today it trades at around Rs. 13.

Do you know what was the highest price?

Rs. 2578.05 on March 08, 2000.

In 16 years, the value of investment has come down to about 0.5%

A stock value can not fall 100%, but it is as near as you can get.

6. Jaiprakash Associates:

It was part of NIFTY. A big conglomerate in construction, power and cement business.

In January 2008, the high was Rs. 339.

Now it trades for Rs. 13.

Why This Story Needs To Be Told?:

It is a widely held belief that in the long run, markets give good returns.

This belief is true.

But the indices do not give the true picture.

In most of the above cited cases, the high price was in January 2008 ( except HFCL ) when NIFTY was around 6100.

Today, NIFTY is at 9200 but these stocks are at just at a fraction of their highs. Market has gone up but they continue to be laggards.

I have listed only a few. There are hundreds of such horror stories.

Index is adjusted by removing or adding stocks. An investor is not so agile.

You can lose money even when markets are going up.

What should be done to avoid such situations?:

Hindsight is always twenty twenty.

We need a good foresight.

No one knows that an INFOSYS will multiply a thousand times and HFCL will reduce to half percent value. In year 2000, both were the future stars. What a contrast today?

Protect your portfolio, like index protects itself. And take action earlier than the index does. In a long term portfolio, get rid of the stock, when it has fallen by about 15–20% of your purchase price.

There will be pain at that time, but not the endless pain which the investors of Unitech, Suzlon, JP Associates are enduring year after year.

I can not suggest that you should stay invested in Blue Chips.

All these were Blue Chips in their prime.

Conclusion:

Indian stock markets are wonderful. There are success stories, but so are the doomsday tales. All make for fascinating stories.

There are inspiring stories of Rakesh Jhunjhunuwala, but the sordid saga of Harshad Mehta also looms in the background.

Do not let the euphoria of the bull market impact you. Pay heed to the beaten down cases also. Learn your lessons from them.

A balanced view will make you a better investor and trader.

 WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
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