Indian Markets have rebounded
from lower levels on account of a short-covering rally & buying support at
lower levels due to better than expected Domestic Macro-Economic data, stable
global markets & on anticipation of Banking Reforms on the back of
scheduled meeting of PSU Banks with PM & FM. Also passage of few important
reform ordinances has led to an expectation of the Government starting to
gather further pace in its reforms related activity ahead of the Union budget
2015.
Core
sector growth climbed to a five month high of 6.7% in November, suggesting that
industrial production may take a turn for the better after an unexpected
contraction in October. Growth was 3.2 percent in November last year.
Indian
manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in two years in December
2014. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’
Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, rose to 54.5 in December from 53.3 in
November, registering its highest growth since end-2012 and its 14th straight
month above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction.
However
on the flipside, The Central Government’s fiscal deficit for the April-November
period touched 99% of the Budget estimate for 2014-15.
Sectorially,
Capital Goods, Power &
Metals ended the week with highest gains to the tune of 4%, followed by IT,
Banks & Realty closing 2.5-3% in the green. Pharma & Auto Sector also
contributed with 2% gains while FMCG & Oil & Gas sectors acted as
laggards.
On the Global Front,
Hong Kong Markets closed 3%
positive followed by Indian Markets which ended the week with a 2.4% gain. On
the other hand Japanese Markets closed with a 2% cut followed by US Markets
closing 1.5% in the red.
US Dollar has continued to
strengthen past 91 levels which is signaling caution for emerging market
currencies & commodities world-wide.
CNX Nifty (CMP 8395):
Last Week, Nifty exactly
rebounded from 8210 which was 38.2% retracement of the rebound from 7963 (17th
Dec) to 8364 (23rd Dec) and closed above its 50 DMA as well as above crucial
resistance zone of 8350.
Since last Week Indices
rallied on lower volumes, Expect Index to retest & find support around
8290-8310 zone & if 8290 holds, Index could continue marching upwards upto
8530-8550.
If Index breaks &
sustains below 8290, would witness a retest of support zone around 8150-8060
zone.
Breadth of the markets
remained positive, however on Lower Volumes. Hence the Price-Action in the
coming week would be extremely crucial.
RSI, Stochastic & MACD
are placed above its averages on daily charts with Stochastic placed above its
averages on weekly charts too.
Nifty has once again closed
above its 50 DMA which would lead to buying support on dips.
However, RSI & MACD are
placed below its averages on Weekly charts indicating some profit booking from
higher levels.
Hence Range for the coming
week could be 8285-8530.
On the Derivatives
Front,
NIFTY saw long built up 4% OI
add, with price ending W-o-W up by 2.3%; On Options front, 8200 PE saw Max
addition, W-o-W with total OI at 45.57 Lakh Shares; on CE front unwinding
witnessed across the board, with Max. OI at 8600 levels total OI 36.61 Levels.
Implying range as per writers 8180-8580.
BANKNIFTY (CMP 19057):
Bank Nifty has given a break
out & closed 3% positive for the past week.
Expect Index to retest &
find support around 18800-188200 zone & if 18800 holds, Index could further
witness further upside upto 19350-19400.
If Index breaks &
sustains below 18800, would witness a retest of support zone around 18400-18350
zone.
On the Derivatives
Front,
BANKNIFTY another week of
outperformance W-o-W up 2.7% with long Positions adding up to the tune of 18%.
On Options front highest OI in 18000 PE and 19500 CE both OI 4.35 Lakh Shares
and 4.10 Lakh Shares, Implying range 17800-19800.
Going forward,
Movement of the Markets would
be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against
the Dollar & crude oil price movement.
Q3FY15 results of Indian
corporates slated to be announced starting January 2015 would be on the
Investors radar & close watch would be on the Management tone which would
lead to a revision in the future earnings forecasts.
USDINR (CMP 63.17):
USD INR has stabilized in the
past week between 62.90-63.80 zone with the Global Market Sentiments
stabilizing.
Now Going Forward, Till Rupee
holds 62.3 zone, would once again move upto 64.70-65 zone.
Below 62.3, would retest 60
zone.
BRENT CRUDE ($ 56.42):
Crude prices continued to
soften upto 56$ i.e. 5 & a Half Year Low on account of further
strengthening of Dollar.
It can still dip upto 53 zone
but has approached extremely oversold zone & hence if 53 is held, a
pullback upto 63-65 cannot be ruled out.
But overall from 63-65 zone,
selling pressure would re-emerge.
DOW JONES (CMP 17,832):
Dow Jones has closed 1% lower
past week on account of profit booking from higher levels amidst lower volumes
on account of Christmas Holidays.
Now Going Forward,
Till support 17,650-17,700
holds, expect a rebound upto 18,550 zone. Below 17,650 can correct upto
17,200-17,100 zone.
Midcap: (CMP 12700)
NSE Mid-cap CMP 12,700 closed
3% positive for the week closing around its all-time highs.
Going forward, till 12400
holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 13000-13100.
If Index breaks &
sustains below 12400, would witness a retest of support zone around 11800-11850
zone.
Small Cap (CMP 11,308):
BSE Small-Cap CMP 11,308
closed 4% positive for the week closing just 2% away from its all-time
highs. .
Going forward, till 10700
holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 11300-11450.
If Index breaks &
sustains below 10700, would witness a retest of support zone around 10400-10350
zone.
VIX (13.81):
VIX has been hovering between
13 to 16 in the past week, however closed around 13.80.
Going forward, till VIX stays
below 17 i.e. 200 DMA, it can retest the support zone of 11 which would imply
buying support at lower levels into the Markets.
Above 17, VIX could Spike
upto 22-24 which would signal a possibility of a fresh sell-off.
On the derivatives front,
• FII’s for the past week
have turned net buyers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have
stayed Net Buyers for the 4th consecutive week gone by.
• On a Weekly basis In
Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 1554 Cr with an open
interest increase of around `2283 Cr which indicates Long Build Up in Index
Futures by FIIs.
• Nifty Futures have closed
at a 72 points premium as against a 68 point premium for the previous week.
Cumulative FII
Derivatives Stats from 29/12/2014 to 02/01/2015:
Index Futures: +1552 Cr;
Index Options: +4413 Cr;
Stock Futures: +96 Cr;
Stock Options: +239 Cr
Cash Market:
FII: +873 Cr;
DII: +999 Cr.
WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!
