Following is the Analysis on Several Indices including
Nifty, Bank Nifty, All F&O Stocks, Small Cap & Mid Cap along with VIX
& USDINR, Derivatives Outlook.
CNX Nifty (CMP 7509):
Persistent Worries of deficient rainfall leading to fears of
Inflation stoking up & Ongoing Geopolitical tensions arising w.r.t Military
activities in Iraq has led to indices remaining under pressure & close flat
for the week forming a Doji leading to state of indecisiveness &
uncertainties going ahead in the couple of weeks ahead of budget amongst
Market Participants.
With 7600-7800 CE having maximum OI of 30-27 Lakhs each
& along with 7300-7200 Put having an OI of 28 lakhs & 29 lakhs
respectively, 7580-7610 is a key resistance for the next few sessions &
7400-7440 is key support going forward.
Expect Nifty to find support around 7450-7470 & till
this support zone holds, can recover upto 7610-7620.
Above 7620, the move could gather further momentum upto
7710-7780.
If Index breaks & sustains below 7400, would lead a
further steeper correction upto 7340-7260 zone.
Weekly Range could be 7400-7610.
Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are
placed above their respective averages on Weekly charts but below their
respective averages on daily charts. Also RSI & Stochastic are placed in
overbought zone on weekly charts.
On the Roll over Front,
Rolls in NIFTY futures higher than last month with NIFTY
rolls at 71% (last month 59.6%), higher than 6-month average of 62.4%, also in
value terms, it is at 11109 Cr. versus 11650 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 3.5% in last
series, number of shares have decreased to 147 lakh versus 160 lakh shares). On
other hand, market wide roll was flat at 79% (last month 78%) in value terms
58284 Cr which is more than last month 55985 Cr., (in share terms it saw
decrease, along with price action as some individual stocks have increased
10-15% on price chart) leading to overall position lower 69393 Cr Vs
67635 Cr. (flat M-o-M) in futures positions Roll Cost is at 0.54 which is lower
Month on Month of 0.59, also below 12mth avg. of 0.59, with NIFTY cost however
moved up at 0.55 (in line with 0.55 avg. of 6 months, and last month
0.41). Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has decrease to 0.19 (last month 0.22),
implies market participants have increased bets on Individual stocks, implying
market participants feel NIFTY may consolidate.
Index options positions have
decreased to 59847 Cr (last month 61208 Cr) however if we take premium in
consideration, Options have increase as market participants clearly placing
bets on VIX which refuses to move above 19.9, till it remains below 19.9-20,
Bulls will have upper hand NIFTY will continue to consolidate positive bias, We
feel Nifty trading range for this series would be 7250-7930, as we enter the
JULY Series.
Going forward,
Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows,
development pertaining to geopolitical crisis in Iraq, progress of Monsoons,
Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil
price movement.
USDINR (CMP 60.09):
USDINR has taken support around 59 zone & has traded
around 60 zone on account of the ongoing uncertainty arising due to Iraqi
military crisis.
Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 58.75 zone, would once again
move upto 62 zone.
BRENT CRUDE ($ 113.4)
Uncertainties pertaining to ongoing geo-political tensions
in Iraq has led to a Brent Crude prices boiling from 107 $ to 114 $ per barrel
i.e at a 9-Month high in the past week & it has a big negative
impact on the domestic economy as the country is the biggest importer of Crude
Oil. It would increase the burden of Oil Subsidies which inturn would adversely
affect the country’s BOP.
Till the geopolitical crisis remains unsolved, Brent Crude
would finding support around 111 $ & thus if it holds 111 $, will move upto
118-119 $ zone.
Midcap: (CMP 10858)
NSE Mid-cap CMP 10858 has witnessed buying on all dips &
gained 3% for the week gone by & has outperformed the broader
indices.
Going Forward 10630 is held, expect the current medium term
uptrend to continue upto 11150 where the current upmove could end &
reversal can be witnessed. Break & sustenance below 10630 with volumes
could lead to a retest of 10200-10320 zone.
Small Cap (CMP 10022):
BSE Small-cap CMP 10022 has witnessed buying on all dips
& gained 3% for the week gone by.
Going Forward 9830 is held, expect this current uptrend to
continue upto 10350 where the current upmove could end & reversal can be
witnessed. Stay cautious as RSI on weekly charts is at extremely overbought
zone above 88.
Break & sustenance below 9830 with volumes could lead to
a retest of 9550-9400 zone.
VIX (17.62):
VIX in the past 2 week has been steadily moving up from 14
to 18 i.e almost a 30% increase.
Above 19, it would directly spike upto 24-27 zone. Till its
below 19, we could witness bulls ruling & buying on dips would be
witnessed. .
On the derivatives front,
• FII’s for the past week have stayed net buyers in the cash
market but sellers in derivatives markets while DII’s have been Net sellers for
the week gone by. One important thing to note is FII has been selling
Stock Futures worth Rs 3400 Cr for the past 5 sessions.
• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net
Buyers to the tune of ` 929 Cr with an open interest decrease of around `2908
Cr which indicates Short Covering in Index Futures by FIIs.
• Post Expiry, Nifty PCR_OI has fallen to 0.74 compared to
0.81 week earlier.
• NIFTY 7300-7200 PE highest OI 29-28 lakh shares,
implying 7400-7420, strong support; On other hand 7600-7800 CE total OI 30
& 27 lakh shares; expected range coming week 7400-7620.
• Nifty Futures have closed at a 34 point premium at the
start of the new series.
Cumulative FII
Derivatives Stats from 23/06/2014 to 27/06/2014:
Index Futures: +931 Cr;
Index Options: +1756 Cr;
Stock Futures: -3453 Cr;
Stock Options: -26 Cr
Cash Market:
FII: +310 Cr;
DII: -535 Cr.IT: Sector Weightage 16.62% in Nifty:
TECHNOLOGY sector saw pick up in rolls below market wide at 76%, in line with its 6-month average 76%, majorly with TCS & HCL
TECH showing above average roll-overs. However, Infosys has once again been a disappointment with a dip in roll-overs.
TCS (CMP 2400) - Weightage 5.25% in Nifty.
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 2340 zone & if 2340 holds would further move upto 2500 zone. Below 2340, would
retest 2250.
Infosys (CMP 3225) - Weightage 6.77% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 3175 zone & if 3175 holds would further move upto 3308 zone. Below 3175, would retest 3100.
WIPRO (CMP 546) - Weightage 1.74% in Nifty.
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 524 zone & if 524 holds would further move upto 575 zone. Below 524, would
retest 480.
HCLTECH (CMP 1478) - Weightage 1.67% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 1435-1440 zone & if 1435 holds would further move upto 1568 zone. Below 1435, would retest 1360.
TECH MAHINDRA (CMP 2131):
Stock is in a Buy mode & should take support around 2070-2080 zone & if 2070 holds would further move upto 2265 zone. Below 2070,
would retest 1980.
HEXAWARE (CMP 157):
Stock is in a Buy mode & should take support around 152 zone & if 152 holds would further move upto 165 zone. Below 152, would
retest 140.
IT: Sector Weightage 16.62% in Nifty:
TECHNOLOGY sector saw pick up in rolls below market wide at 76%, in line with its 6-month average 76%, majorly with TCS & HCL
TECH showing above average roll-overs. However, Infosys has once again been a disappointment with a dip in roll-overs.
TCS (CMP 2400) - Weightage 5.25% in Nifty.
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 2340 zone & if 2340 holds would further move upto 2500 zone. Below 2340, would
retest 2250.
Infosys (CMP 3225) - Weightage 6.77% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 3175 zone & if 3175 holds would further move upto 3308 zone. Below 3175, would retest 3100.
WIPRO (CMP 546) - Weightage 1.74% in Nifty.
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 524 zone & if 524 holds would further move upto 575 zone. Below 524, would
retest 480.
HCLTECH (CMP 1478) - Weightage 1.67% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 1435-1440 zone & if 1435 holds would further move upto 1568 zone. Below 1435, would retest 1360.
TECH MAHINDRA (CMP 2131):
Stock is in a Buy mode & should take support around 2070-2080 zone & if 2070 holds would further move upto 2265 zone. Below 2070,
would retest 1980.
HEXAWARE (CMP 157):
Stock is in a Buy mode & should take support around 152 zone & if 152 holds would further move upto 165 zone. Below 152, would
retest 140.
OFSS (CMP 3056):
Stock should take support around 2960-2975 zone & if 2960 holds would further move upto 3205 zone. Below 2960, would retest 2880.
Banking / Finance - Sector Weightage 26.46% in Nifty:
CMP 14,992. Last week. Bankex faced resistance around 15,430-15,450 & thus once again profit booking upto 14950 was witnessed
leading to index closing forming a Doji. Now Going Forward, till 14,750 zone holds, expect the index to witness a small upside upto
15,350-15,400 zone again. However, if it breaks & sustains below 14,750 zone, 14,350-14,300 would be witnessed.
BANKING sector witnessed above average rolls at 82%, above market wide rolls and higher M-O-M, with Banking stocks showing mixed
C-o-C implying stock specific long rolls, especially mid cap PSU Banks showing better Roll Cost.
FINANCE sector saw drop in rolls at 79% below avg. 80% (m-o-m drop 81%), in line with market wide rolls, with C-o-C mixed, stock
specific approach.
HDFCBANK (CMP 817) - Weightage 6% in Nifty
Stock would face resistance at higher levels along with RSI showing negative divergence at higher levels. Thus, till 839 zone is not
crossed, expect a retest of support zone 784. Upside upto 865 if crosses & sustains above 839.
SBI (CMP 2642) - Weightage 2.42% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels along with RSI showing negative divergence at higher levels. Thus, till 2680 zone is not
crossed, expect a retest of support zone 2564. Upside upto 2755 if crosses & sustains above 2680.
HDFC (CMP 976) - Weightage 5.81% in Nifty - Q4 Results on 06/05/2014 (Tuesday):
Stock should take support around 950-955 zone & if 950 holds would further move upto 1039 zone. Below 950, would retest 910.
ICICI BANK (CMP 1389) - Weightage 6% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 1425 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 1338. Upside upto 1500
if crosses & sustains above 1425.
Axis Bank (CMP 1914) - Weightage 2% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 1870-1880 zone & if 1870 holds would further move upto 1960 zone. Below 1870, would retest 1780.
Kotak Bank (CMP 862) - Weightage 1.3% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 840-845 zone & if 840 holds would further move upto 910 zone. Below 840, would retest 895.
Bank of Baroda (CMP 848) - Weightage 0.65% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 810-815 zone & if 810 holds would further move upto 890 zone. Below 810, would retest 778.
PNB (CMP 951) - Weightage 0.5% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, Stock should take support around 930-935 zone & if 930 holds would further move upto 990 zone.
Below 930, would retest 898.
IDFC (CMP 128) - Weightage 0.69% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 125-126 zone & if 125 holds would further move upto 136 zone. Below 125, would retest 118.
IndusInd Bank (CMP 571) - Weightage 0.95% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 551-553 zone & if 551 holds would further move upto 610 zone. Below 551, would retest 510.
L&T Finance (CMP 73):
Stock should take support around 70 zone & if 70 holds would further move upto 79 zone. Below 70, would retest 64.
M&M Finance (CMP 274):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 264 zone & if 264 holds would further move upto 290 zone. Below 264,
would retest 236.
LIC Housing Fin (CMP 317):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 304 zone & if 304 holds would further move upto 350 zone. Below 304,
would retest 279.
PFC (CMP 301):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 316 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 280. Upside upto 345 if
crosses & sustains above 316.
RELIANCE CAPTIAL (CMP 635):
RELCAP has seen above avg. rolls at 88% (well above six month avg., with higher cost), implying long rolls.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 612-620 zone & if 612 holds would further move upto 665 zone. Below
612, would retest 591.
Shriram Transport Finance (CMP 895):
SHRITRANSFIN has witnessed above average roll 76% with Cost increase & Stock should take support around 865-870 zone & if 865
holds would further move upto 940 zone. Below 865, would retest 820.
ALBK (CMP 133):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 137 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 120. Upside upto
147 if crosses & sustains above 137.
ANDHRA BANK (CMP 95):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 100 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 88. Upside upto 110 if
crosses & sustains above 100.
BANKINDIA (CMP 284):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 273-275 zone & if 273 holds would further move upto 310 zone. Below
273, would retest 246.
CANARA BANK (CMP 433):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 416-420 zone & if 416 holds would further move upto 460 zone. Below
416, would retest 380.
DENABANK (CMP 81):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 85 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 73. Upside upto 95 if
crosses & sustains above 85.
FEDERAL BANK (CMP 131):
FEDERALBK saw above average roll of 83% (with cost increase long rolls) 0.95 versus avg. of 0.44.
Stock should take support around 125-127 zone & if 125 holds would further move upto 145 zone. Below 125, would retest 114.
IDBI (CMP 105):
IDBI showing rolls above avg. at 89% versus 83% with C-o-C improve M-O-M.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 109.50 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 96. Upside upto 115 if
crosses & sustains above 109.50.
IOB (CMP 76):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 73 zone & if 73 holds would further move upto 83 zone. Below 73, would
retest 67.
KARNATAKA BANK (CMP 133):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 138-139 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 122. Upside upto 149
if crosses & sustains above 139.
ORIENTAL BANK (CMP 310):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 298-301 zone & if 298 holds would further move upto 324 zone. Below
298, would retest 268.
SYNDICATE BANK (CMP 158):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 162-164 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 146. Upside upto 175
if crosses & sustains above 164.
UCOBANK (CMP 99):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 103-104 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 90. Upside upto 115 if
crosses & sustains above 104.
UNIONBANK (CMP 227):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 233-235 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 214. Upside upto 260
if crosses & sustains above 235.
YES BANK (CMP 532):
Stock should take support around 512-516 zone & if 512 holds would further move upto 585 zone. Below 512, would retest 475.
IFCI (CMP 41):
Stock should take support around 37 zone & if 37 holds would further move upto 48 zone. Below 37, would retest 32.
OIL & GAS - Sector Weightage 12.3% in Nifty:
OIL & GAS saw drop in rolls below avg. rolls, at 75%, well below market wide better M-o-M (75.5% last month), with the stocks seeing CO-
C flat to decline, implying sector seeing short rolls.
Reliance (CMP 1012) - Weightage 6.93% in Nifty.
RIL saw above avg. rolls at 84% with C-O-C decline, implying shorts rolled. Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till
1035 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 980. Upside upto 1070 if crosses & sustains above 1035.
ONGC (CMP 411) - Weightage 3% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 427 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 380. Upside upto 450 if
crosses & sustains above 427.
CAIRN (CMP 361) - Weightage 1 % in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 372 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 335. Upside upto 398 if
crosses & sustains above 372.
GAIL (CMP 456) - Weightage 0.82% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels along with RSI showing negative divergence at higher levels. Thus, till 468 zone is not
crossed, expect a retest of support zone 420. Upside upto 490 if crosses & sustains above 468.
BPCL (CMP 570) - Weightage 0.56% in Nifty.
Stock saw above avg. rolls at 87% with cost increase & has formed a strong bottom at crucial support levels. Though the stock is in sell
mode, it should take support around 545-550 zone & if 545 holds would further move upto 600 zone. Below 545, would retest 520.
HPCL (CMP 397):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 379-380 zone & if 379 holds would further move upto 415 zone. Below
379, would retest 350.
IGL (CMP 352):
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 337 zone & if 337 holds would further move upto 390 zone. Below 337, would
retest 315.
IOC (CMP 333):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 319-320 zone & if 319 holds would further move upto 365 zone. Below
319, would retest 289..
PETRONET (CMP 173):
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around 167 zone & if 167 holds would further move upto 185 zone. Below 167, would
retest 154.
FMCG - Sector Weightage 12.35% in Nifty:
FMCG sector saw pick up in rolls, higher then 6-month avg. 82% higher than market wide (increase m-o-m), with Cost of Carry of mid
cap stocks improve, stock specific activity required.
ITC (CMP 320) - Weightage 8.49% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 310 zone & if 310 holds would further move upto 338 zone. Below 310,
would retest 289.
HUL (CMP 616) - Weightage 2.76% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 610 zone & if 610 holds would further move upto 660 zone. Below 610,
would retest 560.
Asian Paints (CMP 585) - Weightage 1.1% in Nifty.
Stock is in buy mode & should take support around 563 zone & if 563 holds would further move upto 630 zone. Below 563, would retest
520.
BATA INDIA (CMP 1239):
Stock saw rolls of 91% (better than six month avg.) with cost showing improvement.
Stock is in a buy mode & should take support around its 20 DMA 1195-1210 zone & if 1195 holds would further move upto 1305 zone.
Below 1195, would retest 1160.
COLPAL (CMP 1515):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 1550 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 1450. Upside upto 1630
if crosses & sustains above 1550.
DABUR (CMP 186):
Stock is in buy mode & should take support around 183 zone & if 183 holds would further move upto 196 zone. Below 183, would retest
170.
GODREJ IND (CMP 355):
Stock is in buy mode & should take support around 340 zone & if 340 holds would further move upto 386 zone. Below 340, would retest
310.
MCDOWELL (CMP 2490):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 2550 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 2350. Upside upto 2730
if crosses & sustains above 2550.
MCLOED RUSSEL (CMP 317):
Stock should take support around 295 zone & if 295 holds would further move upto 310 zone. Below 295, would retest 265.
TATA GLOBAL (CMP 171):
Stock is in buy mode & should take support around 163 zone & if 163 holds would further move upto 194 zone. Below 163, would retest
150.
TITAN (CMP 353):
TITAN has seen above avg. roll 83% with improve in Cost implying long roll, Stock is trading above its 20 & 50 DMA & should take
support around 337 zone & if 337 holds would further move upto 390 zone. Below 337, would retest 315.
AUTO - Sector Weightage 9% in Nifty:
AUTOMOBILE sector has shown below 6-month avg. at 77%, below market wide limit of 80% (below M –O-M 79%).
Tata Motors (CMP 432) - Weightage 3.81% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 423 zone & if 423 holds would further move upto 464 zone. Below 423,
would retest 400.
Bajaj Auto (CMP 2309) - Weightage 1.3% in Nifty.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 2270 zone & if 2270 holds would further move upto 2370 zone. Below 2270, would
retest 2190.
Maruti (CMP 2454) - Weightage 1% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 2490 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 2350. Upside upto 2585
if crosses & sustains above 2490.
M&M (CMP 1154) - Weightage 1.9% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 1178 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 1080. Upside upto 1230
if crosses & sustains above 1178.
Hero Motors (CMP 2622) - Weightage 1% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 2670 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 2550. Upside upto 2775
if crosses & sustains above 2670.
APOLLO TYRES (CMP 196):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 188 zone & if 188 holds would further move upto 210 zone. Below 188,
would retest 180.
BHARAT FORGE (CMP 608):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 585-590 zone & if 585 holds would further move upto 640 zone. Below 585, would
retest 545.
EXIDE (CMP 143):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 136-138 zone & if 136 holds would further move upto 160 zone. Below 136, would
retest 123.
TATA MOTOR DVR (CMP 299):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 282 zone & if 282 holds would further move upto 320 zone. Below 282,
would retest 260.
PHARMA - Sector Weightage 5.25% in Nifty:
PHARMA stocks have seen pick up in rolls at 84% M-o-M with C-o-C of the stocks mixed, suggesting stock specific activity crucial.
Sun Pharma (CMP 661) - Weightage 2% in Nifty.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 640-645 zone & if 640 holds would further move upto 695 zone. Below 640, would
retest 610.
Lupin (CMP 1048) - Weightage 1% in Nifty.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 1020-1023 zone & if 1020 holds would further move upto 1085 zone. Below 1020,
would retest 986.
Dr Reddy (CMP 2552) - Weightage 1.42% in Nifty.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 2500-2510 zone & if 2500 holds would further move upto 2630 zone. Below 2500,
would retest 2420.
Cipla (CMP 437) - Weightage 0.86% in Nifty.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 420-425 zone & if 420 holds would further move upto 470 zone. Below 420, would
retest 398.
Ranbaxy (CMP 499):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 475-480 zone & if 475 holds would further move upto 540 zone. Below 475, would
retest 450.
AUROBINDO PHARMA (CMP 741):
AUROPHARMA rolls at 86% higher than M-o-M (6-month avg.) with C-o-C improve imply long roll, technically, the stock has closed
above 710-712 zone i.e. new 52 week high, till it holds above this support, one should buy on dips, for a target of 790-800.
BIOCON (CMP 524):
BIOCON saw above average rolls to the tune of 91% (much higher than last month) with C-o-C improve, implying long Rolls with price
charts suggesting strength, with stock managing to cross stiff resistance 506-507 levels multiple tops, if stays above 513 it immediate
target 545-550, above it a serious rally can unfold till 580. Stop would be 500 zone.
DIVIS LAB (CMP 1438):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 1400 zone & if 1400 holds would further move upto 1500 zone. Below 1400, would
retest 1340.
GLENMARK (CMP 570):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 584 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 547. Upside upto 610 if
crosses & sustains above 584.
Apollo Hospitals (CMP 978):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 950-955 zone & if 950 holds would further move upto 1030 zone. Below
950, would retest 890.
METALS - Sector Weightage 2.37% in Nifty:
METALS have seen pick up in rolls above 6-month average at 86% (better than last month 80%)
SSLT (CMP 290) - Weightage 0.3% in Nifty.
Stock saw above avg. rolls at 86% (increase M-o-M), with cost improve, with stock is placed at crucial support above 288-292 levels (50
DMA), buy on dips till it stays above 283, once move above 302 expect test next resistance level of 317-322 levels.
NMDC (CMP 178) - Weightage 0.47% in Nifty.
Stock has witnessed rolls above avg. at 91% with cost improve, has formed a strong bottom 171-173 i.e. 20 DMA, buy on rise, till stay
above 171 & can aggressively buy more once move above 185-186 levels i.e. 20 and 50 DMA, for an upside upto 200.
Tata Steel (CMP 519) - Weightage 1% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 536 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 497. Upside upto 562 if
crosses & sustains above 536.
Jindal Steel (CMP 320) - Weightage 0.50% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 307 zone & if 307 holds would further move upto 345 zone. Below 307,
would retest 280.
HINDALCO (CMP 161) – Weightage 0.8% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels with RSI showing negative divergence at higher levels. Till 166 zone is not crossed, expect a
retest of support zone 150. Upside upto 180 if crosses & sustains above 166.
HINDZINC (CMP 164):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 158 zone & if 158 holds would further move upto 172 zone. Below 158,
would retest 145.
JSWSTEEL (CMP 1231):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 1208 zone & if 1208 holds would further move upto 1272 zone. Below
1208, would retest 1145.
SAIL (CMP 93):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 90 zone & if 90 holds would further move upto 100 zone. Below 90,
would retest 83.
POWER - Sector Weightage 2.60% in Nifty:
POWER stocks has seen pick up in rolls well above six month avg. rolls at 84% (M-o-M roll pick up with stocks C-o-C mixed, clearly
suggesting stock specific activity.
NTPC (CMP 152) - Weightage 1.08% in Nifty.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 146-148 zone & if 146 holds would further move upto 168 zone. Below
146, would retest 135.
Power Grid (CMP 136) - Weightage 0.84% in Nifty.
Stock witnessed rolls 77% higher than 6mth avg. 66%, with C-o-C improve implying Long rolls. Stock has seen strong bottom at support
level of 129-130, i.e. 50 DMA buy on dips till holds above 129 i.e. multiple bottoms will test next strong resistance levels 143-145.Below 130, would retest 123.
Tata Power (CMP 104) - Weightage 0.7% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 106 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 93. Upside upto 115 if
crosses & sustains above 106.
CESC (CMP 651):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 630 zone & if 630 holds would further move upto 690 zone. Below 630, would retest
590.
PTC (CMP 93):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 89-90 zone & if 89 holds would further move upto 100 zone. Below 89, would retest
80.
REC (CMP 354):
Stock should take support around 340-345 zone & if 340 holds would further move upto 375 zone. Below 340, would retest 300.
REL INFRA (CMP 735):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 710-715 zone & if 710 holds would further move upto 770 zone. Below
710, would retest 680.
RPOWER (CMP 105):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 100 zone. Till 100 holds, expect the stock to move up towards 114 zone.
Below 100, stock would resume its downtrend towards 89 zone.
ADANI POWER (CMP 60.35):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 57-58 zone & if 57 holds would further move upto 68 zone. Below 57,
would retest 51.
JSWENERGY (CMP 78):
Stock has witnessed above avg. rollover of 88%, with Cost improve, implying long rolls; stock is trying to form strong bottom 74-75 i.e.
20 DMA, till it manages to hold above these levels multiple bottoms, expect a target of 83-86.
Below 74, stock would resume its downtrend towards 63 zone.
CAPITAL GOODS - Sector Weightage 5.30% in Nifty:
CAPITAL GOODS sector saw above avg. rolls than 6-month avg. rolls at 83%, well above the market wide rolls of 80%.
LT (CMP 1667) – Weightage 4.57% in Nifty.
Stock witnessed above avg. rolls at 82%, with C-o-C improve, implying longs rolled with stock forming strong bottom 1630-1640 i.e. 50
DMA, short-term if it sustain above 1630 levels it can test 1725-1746 where next weekly resistance are placed.
Below 1630, would retest 1570.
BHEL (CMP 245) - Weightage 0.73% in Nifty.
Stock has witnessed rolls at 89% above avg. of 82% (improving M-o-M 83%), with roll cost improve implying long rolls technically, stock
has rebounded from crucial support 241-242 i.e. 20 DMA, till holds above 232-235 i.e. weekly support one should buy on dips for target
of 264-270. Below 232, would retest 210.
CROMPTON GREAVES (CMP 195):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 188 zone & if 188 holds would further move upto 210 zone. Below 188,
would retest 180.
SIEMENS (CMP 928):
Stock should take support around 905 zone & if 905 holds would further move upto 990 zone. Below 905, would retest 870.
VOLTAS (CMP 219):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 209 zone & if 209 holds would further move upto 240 zone. Below 209,
would retest 188.
TELECOM - Sector Weightage 1.62% in Nifty:
TELECOM sector witnessed a drop in roll M-O-M 80% (last month 82%), above 6-month average, in line with market wide at 80% rolls.
Bharti Airtel (CMP 332) – Weightage 1.62% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Till 340 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 310. Upside upto 360 if crosses
& sustains above 340.
IDEA (CMP 131):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Till 136 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 120. Upside upto 150 if crosses
& sustains above 136.
RCOM (CMP 146):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Till 151 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 130. Upside upto 164 if crosses
& sustains above 151.
TATA COMMUNICATIONS (CMP 380):
Stock has formed Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern & should take support around 360-365 zone & if 360 holds would further move upto
410 zone. Below 360, would retest 330.
CEMENT - Sector Weightage 2.94% in Nifty:
CEMENT sector has witnessed above 6-month avg. rolls at 79% (lower M-o-M), in line with market wide rolls of 80% (with cost mixed
counter) implying stocks specific activity required.
Overall the sector seems to see Market Under Performer, with majority stocks showing Long Unwind.
Ultra Tech (CMP 2596) - Weightage 1% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 2676 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 2470. Upside upto 2775
if crosses & sustains above 2676.
Ambuja Cement (CMP 217) - Weightage 0.66% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 222 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 205. Upside upto 240 if
crosses & sustains above 222.
Grasim (CMP 3415) - Weightage 0.78% in Nifty.
Stock should take support around 3370 zone & if 3370 holds would further move upto 3500 zone. Below 3370, would retest 3300.
ACC (CMP 1430) - Weightage 0.50% in Nifty.
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 1465 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 1370. Upside upto 1540
if crosses & sustains above 1465.
JP Associates (CMP 75) –
Stock should take support around 72 zone & if 72 holds would further move upto 80 zone. Below 72, would retest 65.
CENTURY TEXTILES (CMP 583):
Stock witnessed rolls at 79% lower than avg. of 88%(lower M-o-M 90%); with cost increase implying short squeeze. Stock has given a
fresh break out & should take support around 550-560 zone & if 550 holds would further move upto 630 zone. Below 550, would retest
500.
INDIA CEMENTS (CMP 115):
Stock could face resistance at higher levels. Till 119 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 100. Upside upto 135 if crosses
& sustains above 119.
REAL ESTATE - Sector Weightage 0.33% in Nifty:
REALTY Sector has seen increase in rolls at 85%, with C-O-C of majority counters positive, suggesting supportive buying at lower level
emerging in some stocks.
DLF (CMP 211) - Weightage 0.33% in Nifty.
DLF saw roll of 85% above avg. with cost improve; with stock trying to sustain above break out level 198-203, till remains above it, buy
on dips expect it to move north to 220-231 levels, where next weekly resistance is placed.
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 202-205 zone & if 202 holds would further move upto 230 zone. Below
202, would retest 187.
HDIL (CMP 97):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 92-93 zone & if 92 holds would further move upto 110 zone. Below 92, would retest
83.
IBREAL EST (CMP 97):
Stock has witnessed 90% positions rolled, higher than monthly avg with cost increase implying long positions rolled. Stock is in Buy
mode & should take support around 92 zone & if 92 holds would further move upto 108 zone. Below 92, would retest 85.
UNITECH (CMP 34):
Stock would take support around 31 zone & if 31 holds would further move upto 38-39 zone where this current rally could terminate.
Below 31, would retest 25.
Others – 0.70%:
COAL INDIA (CMP 381) - Weightage 0.70% in Nifty.
Stock could face resistance at higher levels. Till 393 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 360. Upside upto 420 if crosses
& sustains above 393.
ADANI ENT (CMP 437):
Stock is facing resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 455 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 410. Upside upto 490 if
crosses & sustains above 455.
ADANI PORTS (CMP 193):
Stock is facing resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 243 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 210. Upside upto 265 if
crosses & sustains above 243.
HAVELLS (CMP 1174):
Stock would take support around 1140 zone & if 1140 holds would further move upto 1230 zone where this current rally could
terminate. Below 1140, would retest 1080.
JUST DIAL (CMP 1481):
Stock would take support around 1440-1445 zone & if 1440 holds would further move upto 1550 zone where this current rally could
terminate. Below 1440, would retest 1360.
JAIN IRRIGATION (CMP 115):
Stock should take support around 109-110 zone & if 109 holds would further move upto 128 zone. Below 109, would retest 98.
JUBILANT FOODS (CMP 1295):
Stock would take support around 1260-1265 zone & if 1260 holds would further move upto 1350 zone where this current rally could
terminate. Below 1260, would retest 1200.
IRB (CMP 205):
Stock has shown above avg. rolls of 86% with C-o-C improving, implying long rolls, Stock should take support around 212-215 zone & if
212 holds would further move upto 260 zone. Below 212, would retest 186.
GMR INFRA (CMP 34):
Stock should take support around 31 zone & if 31 holds would further move upto 40 zone. Below 31, would retest 26.
TEXTILES:
ARVIND (CMP 233):
Stock has seen below average rolls at 56% with Cost Improvement implying short squeeze. Stock should take support around 218-220
zone & if 218 holds would further move upto 260 zone. Below 218, would retest 195.
ABNUVO (CMP 1367):
Though the stock is in sell mode, it should take support around 1336 zone & if 1336 holds would further move upto 1420 zone. Below
1336, would retest 1260.
FERTILIZERS:
Overall expect the sector to be a market performer with UPL can see further buying.
TATA CHEM (CMP 327):
Stock would face resistance at higher levels. Thus, till 335-338 zone is not crossed, expect a retest of support zone 310. Upside upto 360
if crosses & sustains above 338.
UPL (CMP 330):
Stock has witnessed rolls above avg. at 85% (M-o-M rolls increase with cost increase) implies long roll at lower level, with stock breaking
out above 318-320 levels i.e. recent double top coincide with earlier weekly tops, till holds above 315-320 can test higher levels 350-
360. Below 315, would retest 285.
MEDIA:
DISH TV (CMP 59):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 56-57 zone & if 56 holds would further move upto 65 zone. Below 56, would retest
48.
SUNTV (CMP 453):
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 434-436 zone & if 434 holds would further move upto 479 zone. Below 434, would
retest 405.
ZEE LTD (CMP 289):
ZEEL have seen below avg. rolls of 77% with cost improve i.e. suggesting short squeeze some supportive buying emerging from lower
level, crucial resistance taken away 281-284.
Stock is in Buy mode & should take support around 276-278 zone & if 276 holds would further move upto 309 zone. Below 276, would
retest 245.
