Deri roll april to may 2016

rolls at 74% (last month 62%),higher than 6-month average of 69%, however in value terms, it is at 165 Cr. versus 158 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 2% in last series, number of shares also increased at 209 lakh versus 204 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide increased at 83% (last month 79%) in value terms 54925 Cr which is lower than last month 50827 Cr., (in share terms it gains, along with price action as some individual stocks have moved up 5% on price chart) leading to overall position high 71495 Cr Vs 66712 Cr. (increase M-o-M) in futures positions Roll Cost is at 0.49 which is higher Month on Month of 0.30, better  than 3mth avg. of 0.30, with NIFTY cost also at 0.61 (better last month 0.54, also better  0.44 avg. of 3 months). Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. Has spurted up  at 0.30 (last month 0.29), implies market participants continue to decreased bet on individual stocks.

Nifty front PCR_OI opened below 1 at 0.92 (higher last month 0.77 last  4mth Avg. 0.84) with 8000 and 8200 CE having highest OI across CE options as 26 and 32 lakh Shares (7.5 and 7.6 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying CE writers are convinced NIFTY will find resistance around 8080-8250; on support side PE OI is at 7700 and 7800 PE 38 and 31 lakh shares, (Thursday add 15 and 7 lakh Shares), implying 7700 will be crucial support zone; Index options positions have  increased to 81803 Cr (last month 80640 Cr) however if we take premium in consideration, Options increase in line with market participants clearly placing bets on VIX to be moving up  as it is reached crucial support 15.5, if moves back above  17.5-18.1, BEARS will find upper hand and BULLS will find difficult to manage on to support at base levels NIFTY 7750-7800, We feel Nifty trading range for first few days of this series would be 7750-8130 as we enter the May Series.

Among stock futures positions have decreased in Mid Cap Stocks implying traders continue cut down positions  in MAR; making stock specific activity crucial; sectors that can outperform Index in the MAY Series AUTO, FIN. (except HSG. FIN.), PVT. BANKS, TEXTIES C-o-C improve; On other hand Flat Rolls seen CAP. GOODS,PSU BANKING, PHARMA, FMCG, OIL & GAS (RIL and OMC). and IT suggesting more Long Unwind or Fresh Shorts; need to look at new positions being added.



TOP PICKS



·         EICHERMTR rolls higher than avg. at 84% with Cost improving than 3mth avg. technically, the stock has closed above stiff resistance 19800, one should buy on dips till holds above 19700, any correction should be used to enter, till holds above 19800, will ensure target of 20600-20800.
·         AXISBK showing rolls above avg. at 81% versus 78% with C-o-C flat improve long rolled, Stock has formed a strong bottom at 453-455, if moves above 471 expect upside 485-498.
·         UPL rolls above avg. at 94% (M-o-M rolls flat with cost improve) implies supportive buying at lower level, with stock closing above 499-500 levels, till holds above 497 can test TGT. of 526-531
·         PFC. has seen above avg. rolls at 78% (above six month avg., with cost improve), implying long roll, stock has break out above at 174-175 i.e. coinciding with weekly resistance, if it stays above 174 can test higher levels  194-201 buy on dips.
·         DABUR: saw rolls of 90% (higher than six month avg.) with cost improve, implying long rolled technically stock has moved above stiff resistance 265-266 one should trade with positive bias till trades above 263 expect to retest further resistance levels of 275-279 levels.
·         NCC. showing well above avg. rolls of 87% with C-o-C flat to positive, implying long positions rolled , with stock rebounding from a strong support at  73-74 i, one should buy on dips, if stock sustains above 74-75, expect to test 85-86 recent high next resistance levels.
·         JSWSTEEL: saw above avg. rolls at 89% (increase M-o-M), with cost improve supportive buying at lower levels , with stock break out above stiff resistance at 1320-1325 levels buy on dips if trades above 1315 expect to test next resistance level of 1392-1400 levels.
·         GRANUELS rolls at 89% improve M-o-M (6-month avg.) with C-o-C increase imply long addition, technically, the stock has crossed stiff resistance 124-125 zone in weekly charts, till it remain above resistance 130, one should buy on dips for a target of 139-142.
·         Large Cap TECHM also saw above avg. rollover of 83% with Cost improve; supportive buying, stock has rebounded crucial support zone levels of 469-470 i.e. weekly support, if it remains above 475 levels and moves above 483 expect to test 509-510 levels

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