WEEKLY LEVELS

CNX Nifty (CMP 8322):
Buying support from lower levels coupled with short-covering along with positive cues from the Global Markets has led the Indices to close approximately 4% positive at historic life time highs.
Expect Index to find support around 8230-8250 zone & if 8230 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 8450-8469.
If Index breaks & sustains below 8230, would witness a retest of support zone around 8100-8060 zone.

On the derivatives front:
Rolls in NIFTY futures lower than last month with NIFTY rolls at 63% (last month 71%), lower than 6-month average of 70%, also in value terms, it is at 16055 Cr. versus 13166 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 3.2% in last series, number of shares also moved up at 195 lakh versus 165 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide roll was flat at 82% (last month 82%) in value terms 56878 Cr which is higher than last month 52652 Cr., (in share terms it was flat, along with price action as some individual stocks have increased 10-15% on price chart) leading to overall position lower 72913 Cr Vs 65819 Cr. (dip M-o-M) in futures positions Roll Cost is at 0.51 which is lower Month on Month of 066, however in line with 3mth avg. of 0.51, with NIFTY cost also at 0.35 (lower than 0.35 avg. of 3 months, lower than last month 0.71). Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio flat at 0.28 (last month 0.25), implies market participants have increased bets on Index, implying market participants feel NIFTY may continue upward journey.
Nifty front PCR_OI opened below 1 at 0.86 (in line with last month 0.74, last 4mth Avg. 0.77) with 8200 and 8300 CE having highest OI across CE options as 24.7 and 24.7 lakh, (7.3 and 9.06 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying CE writers are convinced NIFTY will find resistance around 8300-8350; on support side PE OI is at 8000 40.2 lakh shares, (Thursday add 19.6 lakh Shares), implying 7930-7950 will be crucial support zone; Index options positions have increase to 80172 Cr (last month 78268 Cr) however if we take premium in consideration, Options increase in line with market participants clearly placing bets on VIX to move up till 15.5-16, till it remains below 16.4, Bulls will have upper hand NIFTY will continue to consolidate positive bias, We feel Nifty trading range for this series would be 7950-8300, as we enter the NOV. Series.

Among stock futures positions have increased in Mid Caps implying traders taking stock specific in NOV.; making stock specific activity crucial; sectors that can outperform Index in the SEPT. Series AUTO, BANKING, FINANCIALS, CAP. GOODS, REALTY, TELECOM C-o-C improve; On other hand Flat Rolls seen METALS, IT, PHARMA, FMCG and OIL & GAS suggesting more short covering; need to look at new positions being added.

Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are above their respective averages on the Daily as well as Weekly Charts leading to buying support on dips.

BANKNIFTY (CMP 17045):
Past week, Banking Index witnessed buying on dips & closed 3% positive for the week outperforming the broader indices.
Going Forward, till 16,650 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 17,450.
Below 16,650 zone, support zone of 16,200-16,100 would be retested.
Going forward,
Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

USDINR (CMP 61.40):
USDINR has strengthened upto 61.10 previous week as global markets stabilized.
Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 60.80 zone, would once again move upto 61.90-62.20 zone.
Below 60.80, would retest 59.5 zone.

BRENT CRUDE ($ 85.86)
Crude Prices have cooled off around 85-86$ i.e yearly lows & has been on a downward trajectory in the past few weeks after hitting a 9-10 month high of 113-114$ few weeks back.
Till 90$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 80$ to be retested.

Midcap: (CMP 11841)
NSE Mid-cap CMP 11,841 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 3% positive for the past week.
Going forward, till 11,500 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 12,350.
Below 11,500 zone, support zone of 10,900-10,700 would be retested.

Small Cap (CMP 10,930):
BSE Small-Cap CMP 10,930 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 2.5% positive for the past week.
Going forward, till 10,700 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 11,350.
Below 10,700 zone, support zone of 10,400-10,300 would be retested.

VIX (13.29):
VIX has once again broken down upto 12-13 levels after rising upto 17 zone few weeks back.
Going forward, till 11.50 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 18.
On the derivatives front,
• FII’s for the past week have stayed net Buyers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have turned Net Sellers for the week gone by.
• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 6209 Cr with an open interest increase of around `9402 Cr which indicates Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.
• Nifty Futures for the next series have closed at a 30 points premium compared to 10 a week earlier.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 27/10/2014 to 31/10/2014:
Index Futures: +6209 Cr;
Index Options: +8701 Cr;
Stock Futures: -18 Cr;
Stock Options: +34 Cr
Cash Market:
FII: +3738 Cr;
DII: -968 Cr. 

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