CNX Weekly Techno-Derivatives

CNX Nifty (CMP 7791):

Despite weak macro-economic numbers with lower IIP data & higher Inflationary numbers, Buying support at lower levels along with short covering and partial de-escalation of the Iraq as well as Russian-Ukrainian has led the Indices to close approximately 2% positive.

With 7800-7900 CE having OI build-up of 55-47 Lakhs each & 8000 CE having an OI 73 Lakhs & along with 7600-7700 Put having an OI of 78 lakhs & 63 lakhs respectively, 7680-7710 is a key support for the next few sessions & 7890-7910 is key resistance going forward.

Expect Nifty to find support around 7680-7710 & till this support zone holds, can further move upto 7890-7910 once again.

However, a lot of resistance would be witnessed at higher levels.

Above 7910, the move could gather further momentum upto 8020-8090.

If Index breaks & sustains below 7680, would lead a retest of support zone around 7540-7475 zone. 

Weekly Range could be 7680-7910.  

Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are placed above their respective averages on the Daily Charts, However placed below their respective averages on Weekly charts.

BANKNIFTY (CMP 15089):

Despite Higher Inflationary numbers, Bankex which was oversold on daily charts have rebounded to the tune of 2% .  

Hence Going Forward, till 14,850 holds, expect the index to continue its medium term uptrend upto 155,400.

Below 14,850 zone, support zone of 14,450-14,300 would be retested.   

On the Derivatives Front, Index saw long build up to the tune of 5% OI addition with increase in price by nearly 2%;

CNXIT saw 12% OI addition with price nearly up by 1%.

Going forward,

Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, news-flow pertaining to the geopolitical crisis arising in Ukraine & Iraq, progress of Monsoon which has improved significantly, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

USDINR (CMP 60.73):

USDINR has retested support zone of 60.75 on relentless FII Inflows & due to partial de-escalation of Global tensions.

Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 60.30 zone, would once again move upto 63 zone.

BRENT CRUDE ($ 103.40)

Crude Prices have started to cool off after around 102-103$ after hitting a 9-10 month high of 113-114$ few weeks back.

Till 106$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 99-100$ to be retested.

Midcap: (CMP 10809)

NSE Mid-cap CMP 10,809 would find support around 10650 zone with RSI showing positive divergence. 

Till 10650 is held, expect Index to move upto 11,200 zone.

Below 10,650, expect the index to retest support zone of 10300-10350.

Small Cap (CMP 9824):

Post past few months of sharp upmove, index is taking a breather & consolidation is witnessed with a negative bias while closing flatter for the week.

BSE Small-Cap Index CMP 9,824 would witness resistance at higher levels around 10100 zone. 

Till 10,100 is not crossed, expect the index to retest support zone of 9620-9570.

On a cross-over above 10,100 Index would once again resume its upmove towards 10,500-10,600.

VIX (13.22):

VIX has been steadily trading in a range between 11 to 17 in the previous 4-5 weeks.

Above 16, it would directly spike upto 21-24 zone.

On the derivatives front,

• FII’s for the past week have stayed net buyers in the cash as well as derivatives markets while DII’s too have been Net buyers for the week gone by.

• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 3002 Cr with an open interest increase of around `2488 Cr which indicates Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.

• Nifty Futures have closed at a 12 points premium compared to 26 points premium a week earlier.

Cumulative Weekly FII Derivatives Stats from 11/08/2014 to 14/08/2014:

Index Futures: +2876 Cr;

Index Options: +1037 Cr;

Stock Futures: +1711 Cr;

Stock Options: -310 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +1551 Cr;

DII: +352 Cr.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 01/08/2014 to 14/08/2014:

Index Futures: -1642 Cr;

Index Options: +7288 Cr;

Stock Futures: +2713 Cr;

Stock Options: -73 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +747 Cr;

DII: +1780 Cr.

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