WEEKLY...!!

CNX Nifty (CMP 8538):

 

Indices last week witnessed consolidation & closed 0.5% in the negative.

Expect Index to retest & find support around 8450-8470 zone & if 8450 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 8730-8740. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 8450, would witness a retest of support zone around 8350-8290 zone. 

 

On the derivatives front,

Nifty saw OI reduction of 8%, with price moving down by 0.58% W-o-W basis with maximum OI in 8600-8700 CE (with total 54-53 lakh shares respectively) and 8500-8400 PE (with total 55-51 lakh shares respectively); implying support level at 8375-8450.        

 

 

BANKNIFTY (CMP 18756):

Past week, Sharp fall in Bond Yields have led to a further buying in the Banking stocks especially PSU ones.

Banking Index witnessed buying on dips & closed 1.5% positive for the week outperforming the broader indices.  

Index has approached overbought zone. However it pays to be with the trend & not against it. Hence the strategy should be to be a buyer on dips. 

Expect Index to retest & find support around 18500-18550 zone & if 18500 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 18990-19000. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 18500, would witness a retest of support zone around 18100-17950 zone. 

 

On the derivatives front,

BANKNIFTY saw OI addition of 10% with price moving up by 1%; 18000 PCR_OI at 6.58 and 19000 PCR_OI at 0.07, implying expect BANKNIFTY range bound 18000-19000.

 

Going forward,

Movement of the Markets would be dictated by IIP Data, FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

 

 

USDINR (CMP 61.92):

USDINR has remained sideways around 61.50-62 previous week. 

Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 61.4 zone, would once again move upto 62.80-63.20 zone.

Below 61.4, would retest 59.95 zone.

 

BRENT CRUDE ($ 69)

Crude Prices have witnessed a massive plunge after OPEC decision of not to cut Targeted production capacity a week ago.

Till 73$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 65-66$ to be retested.

 

Midcap: (CMP 12667)

NSE Mid-cap CMP 12,667 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 2.5% positive for the past week.

Going forward, till 12,400 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 12,950.

Below 12,400 zone, support zone of 12,100-12,000 would be retested.   

 

Small Cap (CMP 11,474):

BSE Small-Cap CMP 11,474 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 2% positive for the past week.

Going forward, till 11,250 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 11,750.

Below 11,200 zone, support zone of 10,800-10,600 would be retested.   

 

VIX (11.90):

VIX has once again broken down upto 11-12 levels after rising upto 17 zone few months back. 

Going forward, till 14.5 is not crossed, expect Markets to witness buying support on every dip.

Above 14.5 only, VIX could spike upto 18-19 which could lead to some sort of small correction from higher levels. 

 

On the derivatives front,

• FII’s for the past week have stayed net Buyers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have turned Net Sellers for the 5^th consecutive week gone by.

• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Sellers to the tune of ` 3022 Cr with an open interest decrease of around `1829 Cr which indicates Long Unwinding in Index Futures by FIIs.

 

• Nifty Futures for the next series have closed at a 37 points premium on account of beginning of a fresh series compared to 52 a week earlier.

 

 

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 28/11/2014 to 05/12/2014:

Index Futures: -1118 Cr;

Index Options: +3106 Cr;

Stock Futures: -873 Cr;

Stock Options: +272 Cr

 

Cash Market:

FII: +1785 Cr;

DII: -1613 Cr.

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