WEEKLY UPDATE:-

CNX Nifty (CMP 8225):

Nifty Spot has given a dead cat bounce from 7963 to 8260 today (4% from the bottom) on account of Oversold RSI & resultant short-covering from lower levels.  

Going Forward,
Index will face resistance around 8280-8300 as this zone is the 50% retracement of the downfall from 8625 to 7963 along with Nifty 20 EMA around 8295 zone.

Expect Index to retest & find support around 8155-8160 zone & if 8155 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 8290-8295. Only on a cross-over above 8295, bearish counts would get negated & the index would march ahead upto 8380-8410 zone minimum. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 8155, would witness a retest of support zone around 8060-8040 zone. 
 Technically,
Nifty is placed below its 50 day SMA indicating negative trend in the short term.
RSI & Stochastic are placed above its averages on daily charts & below averages on weekly charts. MACD is also placed above its averages on Weekly charts but below its average on daily charts which would lead to some pressure from higher levels.

On the Derivatives Front,

Please note some observations on the Pre Roll Trends from DEC. to JAN. series 2015
INDEX OPTIONS in DEC. Series
8000, 8100 and 8200 PE OI highest across all options i.e. 23.9,  17.3 and 20.3 lakh Shares OI (addition of 4.7, 1.7 and 3.32 lakh shares on Friday) with 8400 and 8500 CE OI at 9.9 and  12.7 lakh share (addition of 1.9 and 1.6 lakh shares on Friday).
Implying NIFTY trying to form a base of 8030-8100 any on upside will find resistance at 8500-8560 levels.

 1). Rolls on indices, NIFTY 25% (below avg. 36%, with cost 0.85 Vs. 0.60), Rolls BANKNIFTY 26% above  avg.  31% (with roll cost at 0.89 Vs. 0.68), CNXIT 12% Vs. 18% (below 6 month avg.); BANKNIFTY and NIFTY Longs Rolled.

2). STOCK futures above avg. rolls at 17% Vs. 29% with Avg. Cost of rolls at 0.77 ( higher  M-O-M 0.52, shade higher  6mth avg. 0.54) clearly reflecting market participants have done very stock specific rolls, making Individual Stocks picking crucial.

BANKNIFTY (CMP 18478):

Past week, Banking Index retested the support zone of 17,500 & rebounded vigorously upto 18500 closing positive by 1% outperforming Nifty.

Expect Index to retest & find support around 18150-18200 zone & if 18150 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 18700-18800. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 18150, would witness a retest of support zone around 17800-17750 zone. 

Going forward,

Movement of the Markets would be dictated by developments w.r.t Ongoing Parliament Session, impact of Expiry Roll-Over sentiments, FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

USDINR (CMP 63.29):

Global Markets jitters & weak macro-economic data i.e widening of CAD has also led to weakening in USDINR upto 64 zone. 

Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 62.3 zone, would once again move upto 64.70-65 zone.

Below 62.3, would retest 60 zone.

BRENT CRUDE ($ 61.38):

Crude Prices have plunged to multi-year lows i.e from 115$ highs in June 2014 to below 59$ in the week gone by on the back of cut in world demand due to slowdown in developed economies including China which is the 2^nd highest Oil Consumer after USA.

However it has approached extremely oversold zone & hence if 59 is held, a pullback upto 66-68 cannot be ruled out.

But overall from 66-68 zone, selling pressure would re-emerge.

DOW JONES (CMP 17,804):

Dow Jones has rebounded upto 17800 zone after correcting 750 points in the previous week.

Now Going Forward,

Till 17,500-17,550 holds, expect a rebound upto 18,250 zone. Below 17,500 can correct upto 17,100-16,900 zone.

Midcap: (CMP 12197)

NSE Mid-cap CMP 12,191 closed flat for the week after retesting support zone of 11470. 

Going forward, till 11900 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 12600-12650. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 11900, would witness a retest of support zone around 11600-11450 zone. 

Small Cap (CMP 10,992):

BSE Small-Cap CMP 11,068 closed 0.7% negative for the week after retesting support zone of 10240. 

Going forward, till 10750 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 11300-11450. 

If Index breaks & sustains below 10750, would witness a retest of support zone around 10400-10350 zone. 

VIX (14.51):

VIX has spiked from 13 to 19 in the initial part of the week post global uncertainty, however closed around 14.50 with Index recovering & volatility reducing in the later part of the week. 

Going forward, till 12.50 is held, expect VIX to move upto 17 zone.

Below 12.5, VIX could retest 10 zone which implies a further rebound in Markets.  

On the derivatives front,

• FII’s for the past week have stayed net sellers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have turned Net Buyers for the week gone by.

• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Sellers to the tune of ` 915 Cr with an open interest increase of around `1615 Cr which indicates Short Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.

 

• Nifty Futures have closed at a 23 points premium as against a 52 point premium at the start of the series a week earlier.

 

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 28/11/2014 to 19/12/2014:

Index Futures: -2991 Cr;

Index Options: +7045 Cr;

Stock Futures: -5126 Cr;

Stock Options: -289 Cr

 

Cash Market:

FII: -4 Cr;

DII: +2673 Cr.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 15/12/2014 to 19/12/2014:

Index Futures: -917 Cr;

Index Options: +2507 Cr;

Stock Futures: -1273 Cr;

Stock Options: -414 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: -4884 Cr;

DII: +3365 Cr.

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