Rolls in NIFTY futures lower than last month with NIFTY
rolls at 68% (last month 71%), higher than 6-month average of 63.3%, also in
value terms, it is at 10943 Cr. versus 11109 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 3.5% in last series,
number of shares have decreased to 141 lakh versus 147 lakh shares). On
other hand, market wide roll was flat at 81%
(last month 79%) in value terms 53386 Cr
which is more than last month 58284 Cr.,
(in share terms it saw decrease, along with price action as some individual
stocks have increased 10-15% on price chart) leading to overall position
lower 64330 Cr Vs 69393 Cr. (dip M-o-M) in futures
positions Roll Cost is at 0.36 which is lower Month on Month of 0.54,
also below 3mth avg. of 0.70, with NIFTY
cost also at 0.38 (lower than with 0.61 avg. of 3 months, and last
month 0.53). Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has
decrease to 0.21 (last month 0.19), implies market participants have
increased bets on Individual stocks, implying market participants feel NIFTY
may consolidate.
Nifty front PCR_OI opened below 1 at 0.78 (higher last
month 0.73, but less than 6mth Avg. 1); with 8000
CE having highest OI across options
as 39.9 lakh, (13.4 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying CE writers are
convinced NIFTY will find resistance around 7950-8030;
on support side PE OI is at 7500 and
7600 31 and 27 lakh shares each, (Thursday 7500 add 9.2 and 7600
8.04 lakh Shares add), implying 7450-7550
will be crucial support zone; Index options positions have increase to 64545 Cr (last month 59847 Cr) however
if we take premium in consideration, Options increase in line with market
participants clearly placing bets on VIX to move up till 19.9, till it remains
below 19.9-20, Bulls will have upper hand NIFTY will continue to consolidate
positive bias, We feel Nifty trading range for this series would be 7450-8030, as we enter the AUG Series.
Among stock futures positions have declined in Mid Caps
and increased in Large Caps implying traders booking profits as we approach
AUG.; making stock specific activity crucial; sectors that can outperform Index
in the AUG. Series BANKING (PSU Banks), IT,
INFRASTRUCTURE, FERTILIZER, FMCG, PHARMA, TELECOM C-o-C improve; On other hand
Shorts seen CEMENT, CAP.GOODS, AUTO, FINANCE (Barring HDFC), POWER, REALTY;
Individual stock picking required.
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