CNX Weekly Techno-Derivatives

CNX Nifty (CMP 7913):

Buying support at lower levels along with short covering and partial de-escalation of the Iraq as well as Russian-Ukrainian has led the Indices to close approximately 2% positive at highest record closing levels.

With 7900 CE having OI build-up of 50 Lakhs each & 8000 CE having an OI 90 Lakhs & along with 7700-7800 Put having an OI of 70 lakhs each with 7900 Put also having OI of 47 Lakhs, 7820-7850 is a key support for the next few sessions & 7990-8010 is key resistance going forward.

Expect Nifty to find support around 7820-7850 & till this support zone holds, can further move upto 7980-8010 once again.

However, a lot of resistance would be witnessed at higher levels.

Above 8010, the move could gather further momentum upto 8098-8120.

If Index breaks & sustains below 7820, would lead a retest of support zone around 7740-7705 zone. 

Weekly Range could be 7820-8010.  

Technically, Key Oscillators RSI, Stochastic & MACD are placed above their respective averages on the Daily Charts, However placed below their respective averages on Weekly charts.

BANKNIFTY (CMP 15790):

Bankex which was oversold on daily charts have rebounded to the tune of 5-6% .  

Hence Going Forward, till 15,550 holds, expect the index to continue its medium term uptrend upto 16,400.

Below 15,550 zone, support zone of 15,150-14,900 would be retested.   

Please note some observations on the Pre Roll Trends from AUG. to SEPT. series 2014

INDEX OPTIONS in SEPT. Series

               

8000 and 8200 CE OI highest across all options i.e. 18.9 and 19 lakh Shares OI (addition of 1.8 and 2.08 lakh shares on Friday) with 7800 PE and 7900 PE OI at 13.26 and 13.27 lakh share (addition of 3.54 and 1.63 lakh shares on Friday).

Implying NIFTY trying to form a base of 7650-7730 any on upside will find resistance at 8100-8160 levels.

1). Rolls on indices, NIFTY 19% (in line with avg. 20%, with cost 0.43 Vs. 0.40), Rolls BANKNIFTY 15% above Avg.  12.5% (with roll cost at 0.53 Vs. 0.45), CNXIT 8% Vs. 11% (lower than 6 month with roll cost 0.19 Vs. 0.32); BANKNIFTY may outperform NIFTY.

                                                                            

2). STOCK futures below avg. rolls at 13% Vs. 16% with Avg. Cost of rolls at 0.39 ( shade lower M-O-M 0.43, in line with  6mth avg. 0.39) clearly reflecting market participants have rolled longs or covered shorts, Individual Stocks picking crucial.

Going forward,

Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, news-flow pertaining to the geopolitical crisis arising in Ukraine & Iraq, progress of Monsoon which has improved significantly, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

USDINR (CMP 60.46):

USDINR has retested support zone of 60.40 on relentless FII Inflows & due to partial de-escalation of Global tensions.

Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 60 zone, would once again move upto 61.50-61.80 zone.

BRENT CRUDE ($ 102.50)

Crude Prices have started to cool off after around 102-103$ after hitting a 9-10 month high of 113-114$ few weeks back.

Till 106$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 99-100$ to be retested.

Midcap: (CMP 11202)

NSE Mid-cap CMP 11,202 took support @ 10,750 zone & witnessed a sharp upmove upto 11,200 zone.. 

Till 10950 is held, expect Index to move upto 11,600 zone.

Below 10,950, expect the index to retest support zone of 10600-10450.

Small Cap (CMP 10,298):

BSE Mid-Cap took support @ 9850 zone & witnessed a sharp upmove upto 10,300 zone.

Till 10000 is held, expect Index to move upto 10,700 zone.

Below 10,000, expect the index to retest support zone of 9700-9650.

VIX (13.62):

VIX has been steadily trading in a range between 11 to 17 in the previous 4-5 weeks.

Above 16, it would directly spike upto 21-24 zone.

On the derivatives front,

• FII’s for the past week have stayed net buyers in the cash as well as derivatives markets while DII’s have turned Net sellers for the week gone by.

• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 1235 Cr with an open interest increase of around `1155 Cr which indicates Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.

• Nifty Futures have closed at a 23 points premium compared to 12 points premium a week earlier.

Cumulative Weekly FII Derivatives Stats from 18/08/2014 to 22/08/2014:

Index Futures: +1237 Cr;

Index Options: +4446 Cr;

Stock Futures: +2658 Cr;

Stock Options: -254 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +1999 Cr;

DII: -374 Cr.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 01/08/2014 to 22/08/2014:

Index Futures: -405 Cr;

Index Options: +11734 Cr;

Stock Futures: +5371 Cr;

Stock Options: -327 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +2746 Cr;

DII: +1406 Cr.

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