Budget 2015 – Best Plays
9th February 2015
Introduction
Budget is an event which all capital
market participants look forward to. However, over the years, the significance
has reduced due to the concurrent (and
on-going) nature of the reforms, both administrative and legislative.
Nevertheless it is still a pertinent
event, where specific sectoral outlays are quantified, giving the broad
direction.
The budget highlights the key thrust
areas, especially, the quality of government spending apart from the tinkering
with the taxation.
However budget for FY16 is likely to
be different. This is the first full-fledged budget of the new government where
no populism is anticipated and also
lot of novel ideas are expected. We expect a lot of initiatives to kick
start
the new era in
manufacturing – If MAKE IN INDIA initiative (Defence, Textile, Electronics,
Railways) has
to
become a reality. The budget is also
likely to focus on the Structural reforms and lay down the vision and roadmap
for next 3-5 years. Recent slump in
the crude prices has helped the subsidy burden to come off creating headroom
for the centre to focus its spending
on Capex.
If we look at the past budgets, the
trend more or less has been of weakness while going into the budget (6 out of
last 7 budgets). So there is
tentativeness (mostly apprehensive of populism) before the budget which is
then followed by positivity mostly.
Key Expectations
Some of
the key proposals expected in the budget include:
• Social
initiatives - Thrust to low cost housing, Education and Health
• Proposals
to support “Make in India” initiatives -Deductions for incremental Capex, SEZ
tax benefits
• Higher
allocation towards the Railways, novel ways to finance new Capex and
participation of the private sector
• Certain
tax increases to fund specific Infra Investments
• Large
allocation towards Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan
• Digitalisation
initiatives
• Likely increase
in tax exemption limit for individuals
Top Event Picks
Arvind mills cmp 278
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Lt cmp 1570
Mahindra life cmp 470
Maruti cmp 3410
Wabco cmp 4770
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