WEEKLY~~~!!!

CNX Nifty (CMP 7459):

Despite Union Budget being delivered in line with expectations & crude settling down around 107 $ per barrel, result season being kickstarted on a positive note with Infosys delivering better than expected results, Index still closed 3.5% negative on account of witnessing profit booking from higher levels amidst global fears which surfacing pertaining to Portugal Banks instability.

With 7600-7800 CE having witnessing an increase in OI build-up of 48-54 Lakhs each along with 8000 CE having OI of 1 Cr & along with 7500-7300 Put having an OI of 44 lakhs & 47 lakhs respectively, 7380-7410 is a key support for the next few sessions & 7590-7620 is key resistance going forward.

Expect Nifty to find support around 7375 & till this support zone holds, can rebound upto 7590-7620.

Above 7620, the move could gather further momentum upto 7780-7820.

If Index breaks & sustains below 7375, would lead a retest of support zone around 7250-7175 zone. 

Weekly Range could be 7375-7620.  

Technically, Key Oscillators RSI & Stochastic are placed below their respective averages on the Daily as well as Weekly charts indicating selling pressure from higher levels. However MACD which is below its average on the daily charts is placed above its average on the Weekly charts indicating buying support on dips. 

On the Derivatives Front,

W-o-W Nifty saw long unwinding from higher levels, saw reduction of nearly 3% in OI, with price moving down by 4%, with maximum 7800-8000 CE with 54-101 lakhs each (with 7600 and 7700 CE add 10 lakh and 8 lakh on Friday) & 7500-7400 PE with 47-45 lakhs each.

BANKNIFTY also some selling pressure W-o-W with 5% reduction in OI; CNXIT saw unwinding from longs to the tune of 10% OI decline.

BANKNIFTY (CMP 14446):

Last week, Bankex faced resistance around 15500 & witnessed a sharp correction upto 14500. With this correction, a lot of banking stocks along with Banking index itself has reached oversold zone & a small pullback could be possible.

Hence Going Forward, till 14,150 zone holds, expect the index to witness rebound upto 14,950-15,100 zone again.

However, if it breaks & sustains below 14,150 zone, 13,860-13,600 would be witnessed.  

Going forward,

Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, forth-coming India Q1FY15 Corporate results along with future earnings guidance, progress of Monsoon, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.

USDINR (CMP 60.05):

USDINR has consolidated & traded in a 1.5% band between 59.40 & 60.40 for the last 20 sessions. Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 59.25 zone, would once again move upto 61.5 zone.

BRENT CRUDE ($ 108)

As the news-flow pertaining to Iraqi crisis have somewhat reduced, Crude Prices have settled & consolidated at higher levels around 108-109$ after hitting a 9-10 month high of 113-114$.

Till 112$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 105-104$ to be retested.

Midcap: (CMP 10495)

NSE Mid-cap CMP 10,4495 has witnessed a sharp correction to the tune of 9% from higher levels. 

Going Forward 10,200 is held, expect the indices to rebound upto 10,950.

Break & sustenance below 10,200 with volumes could lead to a retest of 9800-9720 zone.

Small Cap (CMP 9688):

BSE Small-cap has witnessed a sharp correction to the tune of 8% from higher levels for the week gone by.  We had already advised to stay cautious since past 3 weeks as RSI was in an extremely overbought zone above 90.

Going Forward 9470 is held, expect the indices to rebound upto 10270.

Break & sustenance below 9470 with volumes could lead to a retest of 9150-9000 zone.

VIX (15.16):

VIX has been steadily trading in a range between 14 to 20 post elections during the last 2 months.

Above 18, it would directly spike upto 23-27 zone.

• FII’s for the past week have stayed net buyers in the cash market but sellers in derivatives markets while DII’s have been Net sellers for the week gone by. 

• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Sellers to the tune of ` 2852 Cr with an open interest decrease of around `965 Cr which indicates Long Unwinding in Index Futures by FIIs.

• Nifty PCR_OI has fallen to 0.66 compared to 0.75 week earlier.

• NIFTY 7500-7300 PE highest OI 44-47 lakh shares, implying 7380-7410, strong support; On other hand 7800-8000 CE total OI 54 & 106 lakh shares; expected range coming week 7380-7620.

• Nifty Futures have closed at a 21 point premium compared to 30 points a week earlier.

• BANKNIFTY also some selling pressure W-o-W with 5% reduction in OI; CNXIT saw unwinding from longs to the tune of 10% OI decline.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 27/06/2014 to 18/07/2014:

Index Futures: -2887 Cr;

Index Options: +1389 Cr;

Stock Futures: +899 Cr;

Stock Options: -54 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +6219 Cr;

DII: -3805 Cr.

Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 14/07/2014 to 18/07/2014:

Index Futures: -2854 Cr;

Index Options: -500 Cr;

Stock Futures: +2630 Cr;

Stock Options: -66 Cr

Cash Market:

FII: +706 Cr;

DII: -790 Cr.