Weekly Calendar

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS WEEK

 

MONDAY, JUL 01

 

 China manufacturing PMI (Jun): Down to 50.2 (50.8 in May). Recovery still sputtering..  Korea trade (Jun): Exports up 0.8%Y. First glimpse at June global trade data.

 Japan Tankan survey (Jun): Robust recovery in manufacturing business sentiment.

 Romania monetary policy decision: 25 bp rate cut to 5.00%.

 UK manufacturing PMI (Jun): Slight advance to 51.8 (51.3 in May). Downside risk.

 Euro area flash HICP (Jun): Tick up to 1.7%Y from 1.4%. ECB forecasts 1.3% in 2014.

 US ISM manufacturing index (Jun): One-point rebound to the flat 50 level.

 

TUESDAY, JUL 02

 Australia RBA monetary policy meeting: Hold at 2.75%. Further cuts later in the year.

 

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03

 Swedish Riksbank monetary policy decision: On hold at 1.00%.

 Poland NBP monetary policy decision: Another 25bp cut to 2.50%. End of easing.

 UK services PMI (Jun): Further improvement to 55.3 (54.9 in May).

 Meeting of EU labour ministers in Berlin on the issue of youth unemployment.

 US ADP employment survey (Jun): Consensus looks for +160k (+135k in May).

 US non-manufacturing ISM (Jun): Markets look for a slightly higher reading of 54.2.

 

THURSDAY, JUL 04

 BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speech in Tokyo.

 Bank of England MPC meeting: Higher prob. of QE (35-40%). Welcome Mr Carney!

 ECB meeting and press conference: 25bp off refi rate. Good chance of depo rate cut.

 US Independence Day.

 

FRIDAY, JUL 05

 Japan index of business conditions (Prelim. May): Leading CI up to 101.6 from 99.0.

 BoJ Opinion Survey on the General Public’s Views and Behaviour.

 Germany manufacturing orders (May): 0.9%M rebound, tracking +2.0%Q.  ECB’s Coeuré keynote speech at Amundi forum.

 US labour market report (Jun): Non-farm payrolls up 165k, unemp back down to 7.5%.

 

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