Roll Over Report - May 2013

Rolls in NIFTY futures higher than last month with NIFTY rolls at 67%, higher than 6-month average of 58%, also in value terms, it is at 11501 Cr. versus 8502 Cr. (NIFTY was up by 4% in last series, therefore number of shares have increased to 158 lakh versus 121 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide roll also higher at 78% in value terms 23959 Cr which is more than last month 22168 Cr., (in share terms also higher, also as stocks have gain 5-10 % on price chart) leading to overall position of 35460 Cr Vs 30670 Cr. (higher than last month, and also highest in last three month) in futures positions, however Roll Cost is at 0.48 which is lower than last month but adjusting dividend cost is positive, higher than 6mth avg. of 0.53, with NIFTY cost at 0.09 (which is much lower than 0.58 avg. 6 months, also lower than last month),mainly because of adjustment of dividend . Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has come down to 0.35 (last month 0.40), implies market participants have long roll bets on individual stocks, and covering short positions.

Nifty front PCR_OI opened above 1, but higher from where last series end at 0.98 levels (stable zones); with 5700, and 5800 PE having highest OI across options as 46 and 48 lakh, (19 and 25 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying PE writers are convinced NIFTY will find support around 5670-5750; on resistance side CE OI is at 5900 (42 lakh shares), implying 5900-6005 will be crucial resistance zone; Index options positions however moved up 60110 Cr (last month 52523 Cr) clearly can be attributed to hedging being increased. We feel in short term Nifty trading range would be 5670-5750 to 5900-6005, as we enter the MAY Series.

Among stock futures lot of sectors have shown mixed sentiment, implying it will be Stock Specific market with in a sector also some stocks are showing more strength than others; some of the sectors that can help Index to gain further in the MAY. Series, Overall OIL & GAS, FINANCE, BANKING, METALS, AUTO, OIL & GAS should be watched carefully as they have shown C-o-C improve heavy weights. On other hand, sectors which might underperform are IT CEMENT and TELECOM.

TOP PICKS

LARGE CAPS

· TATAMTR rolls at 77% well above 6-month avg. (with cost improve), implying long rolls; the stock has closed above 285-286 where 50 DMA is placed. If it remains above this level, we expect it to test 305-306 levels.

· Stock to watch for TATASTEEL rolls well above avg. at 83% with cost improving stock has closed above resistance 302-307 zone where 20 and 50 DMA is placed, if continues to sustains above it expect to retest 339-340 levels

· CAIRN saw above avg. rolls at 86% with cost increase, the stock has managed to hold and rebound from crucial support levels 285-290, managed to close above 296 i.e. 50 DMA till it trades above support level, expect stock to move higher levels 321-323 i.e. 200 DMA.

· DRREDDY rolls at 69% versus 61% (6-month avg.) with C-o-C improve imply long rolls, technically, the stock has closed above 1963-1967 zone thus forming a new all time high, one should buy aggressively till it holds and sustains above 1850-1870 for a target of 2100-2150.

REDDUCE

· HCLTECH has shown 75% well above six month avg. with C-o-C decline (lower than last month), implying short rolled, Technically, the stock has breached crucial support levels 740-745 i.e. 50 DMA, if breaks below 1 can move further south to 634-640 i.e. 200 DMA, sell on rise.

MID CAPS

· SRITRANSFIN has seen above avg. rolls at 93% (highest in last six month with higher cost), implying long rolled, stock has consolidated and managed to hold above levels of 666-667, where 200 DMA is placed, if holds above these levels, expect to test 735-770 levels.

· TITAN has seen above avg. roll 82% with increase in Cost implying longs rolled, stock forming a strong support base around 255-259 levels, where 200 and 50 DMA is placed expect to retest 278-280 levels once sustain above 260.

· UCOBANK also showing an increase in rolls above avg. at 89% versus 83% with C-o-C improve implying supportive buying. Stock has closed above 66-67, if holds above 63-64 support expect a technical rally till 72-73 i.e. 200 DMA.

· KTKBK saw above average roll of 91% (with cost improving) versus avg. of 89%. The stock has moved above 149-150 resistance zone, till stays above 142-143 i.e. 50 DMA may retest higher levels of 167-168.

WHAT EVER YOU EARN FROM MY CALLS PLEASE GIVE 10% PROFIT'S FOOD TO COWS AND DOGS HELP THM GOD WILL HELP YOU-!!!